16 June 2020
Results of the most recent polls
"With fewer than 150 days until Americans choose a President for the next four years, Abacus (one of Canada’s most accurate polling companies in the 2019 federal election) surveyed 1500 Americans on their feelings about the choice coming up..."
The margin of error is +/- 2.5 points. More charts and analysis at Abacus Data, via Jobsanger.
Donald Trump has been hit by a rash of polls showing Joe Biden pulling ahead of him – and now, a new survey by Scott Rasmussen for website Just the News shows him falling behind Mr Biden nationally by 12 points.
The latest poll will be particularly galling for the president given it comes from Mr Rasmussen, founder of Rasmussen Reports. The company is one of the only pollsters whose results Mr Trump routinely cites when celebrating his own numbers. frequently writing that it was an outlier in predicting he would win the 2016 election.
And this from The Economist:
Via Flowing Data
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People still want to vote for Trump ?
Crazy country, you've got people like Bernie Sanders and Dolly Parton and people still think Trump is a good idea.
Doesn't matter. He stole the last election against the will of the people. He'll most likely do it again. We didn't want him in the first place, but our system is broken and easily exploited by anyone who is suitably amoral to do so.ReplyDelete
Another Civil War is coming, and from recent events, it's looking more and more likely that it will be fought over the exact same reasons as the first one. Only this time, the states-rights activists will be the ones trying to protect racial equality.
I hope I'm wrong. I really, really hope I'm wrong. But that's the pattern I see. help us all.
Seen this before. If these protests had occurred closer to the election, then Trump would probably be in trouble. Problem is, we have more than four months ahead of us for the economy to recover and for reforms to take place. "Defund the police" is a complete non-starter, and an opportunity for Trump to champion needed police reform.ReplyDelete
And don't forget, Joe Biden still needs to actually campaign, and every one of his interviews seems to come with its own gaffe. The man is a weak challenger, and if the contest becomes viewed as Trump vs Joe's VP, then a lot of voters might not see the Democratic ticket as genuine.
Don't get me wrong, it's a lot more uncertain now than it was in January. These protests needed an uplifting response, and Trump is bad at unifying talk. But we already counted eggs before they hatched in 2016, and the fundamentals now are even more favorable to Trump than they were then.
Look for that 61+ demo to shift solidly blue as the Corona virus continues to take its toll.ReplyDelete