31 March 2020

State-by-state coronavirus predictions

Projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.  You can use the pulldown menu here to check your state.  The curves are updated recurrently as new data becomes available.
That analysis found Wisconsin's peak resource use will come in 53 days, on May 22, as of Sunday. On Monday, the data changed, indicating the state would peak in 26 days, on April 26. There could be a shortage of 360 ICU beds, but not overall hospital bed space, according to the prediction.

That indicates social distancing measures could work as intended to flatten the curve, if they stay in place and people continue to stay at home, as the governor ordered.

"The models are only as good as the data that goes into it. And the best models learn from the previous day's data," said UW Health Chief Quality Officer Dr. Jeff Pothof. "They're immensely helpful if they're accurate, because it kind of helps us know what we're up against. But at the same time, there always has to be a bit of suspicion on whether or not it's accounted for all the variables, or if there's something that it's missing, that maybe we're doing."
 The curves become scarier when you realize where March 31 is on the x-axis.


  1. Did anyone took notice of this https://youtu.be/BfRWJN1aSpY ?

    1. That is VERY interesting, Jens. I had not seen it before or seen reference made to it. Thank you for the link, which I'll plan to post elsewhere in the blog when I have time.

  2. a psyop?

    1. I posted earlier somewhere that there is pretty convincing scientific evidence that this is not a laboratory-derived virus.


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