Wisconsin viewed as the center of the presidential politics universe

Wisconsin is the only state listed as a toss-up by all three of the major national political prognosticators, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Cook Political Report and Inside Elections.

“Wisconsin could be the decider,” said Larry Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “There are only a handful of states that are truly competitive and that switch sides with any regularity, and Wisconsin is one of them.”..

Trump beat Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by about one point, or less than 23,000 votes, in 2016, becoming the first Republican to win the state [and its 10 electoral votes] since Ronald Reagan in 1984...

Barack Obama won Wisconsin handily with margins of 14% in 2008 and almost 7% in 2012, but those victories are looking more and more like outliers, as several presidential elections in recent years have been been extremely close. Despite winning nationally, Republican George W. Bush lost Wisconsin by margins of less than a quarter of a point in 2000 and about a third of a point in 2004...

Anthony Chergosky, UW-La Crosse assistant professor of political science, said polling seems to suggest a shift back toward slight Democratic leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but not Wisconsin, where the split appears to have remained even...

Democrats also will look to address the nearly 20% drop in turnout among black voters from 2012 to 2016. “Nonwhite voters in the state are an important thing for Democrats, but are a relatively small fraction of the total statewide vote because they — especially African Americans — vote overwhelmingly Democratic,” Franklin said. “Their turnout rate matters a lot.”..

With the stage set for potential record voter turnout this year, Sabato said neither party should have much difficulty in getting out the vote. He added that Trump could arguably be the biggest factor at play for both parties.

“Trump is that kind of president, he can activate both sides, which is rare,” Sabato said. “You either love him or you hate him, and pretty much everybody has made up their mind as to whether they love him or hate him.”

More at the Wisconsin State Journal.