14 December 2020

Efficacy of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine


Data from Deutsche Bank AG and the FDA, via John Authers' Bloomberg Opinion column.  I have heard that the vaccine was effective, but this is the first time I've seen the curve.  Amazing.

Addendum:  A tip of the blogging hat to reader Brucexo, who found a detailed breakdown of the Pfizer data:

Note that for the age group over 75, the efficacy is at best uncertain, with an indeterminate 95% confidence interval that the results would be repeatable.  This arises because so few persons were enrolled in this age group (about 800 randomized to BNT and to placebo).  No coronavirus cases arose in the BNT group while 5 did in the placebo controls, but with that small a database it's not possible to prove efficacy.  There is a good discussion at the link, including the comments there.


  1. That's impressive. Now I want to see the chart after dose 2!

  2. I want to see the chart of possible side-effects after a year. (Higher incidences of heart attacks, strokes, etc)

  3. Here's the corresponding chart for Moderna: https://www.fda.gov/media/144453/download


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