Trends of citations in scientific literature
As reported by the
BBC:
China is on course to overtake the US in scientific output possibly as soon as 2013 - far earlier than expected. That is the conclusion of a major new study by the Royal Society, the UK's national science academy...
The figures are based on the papers published in recognised international journals listed by the Scopus service of the publishers Elsevier...
Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith, chair of the report, said he was "not surprised" by this increase because of China's massive boost to investment in R&D. Chinese spending has grown by 20% per year since 1999, now reaching over $100bn, and as many as 1.5 million science and engineering students graduated from Chinese universities in 2006.
According to the report, "The scientific league tables are not just about prestige - they are a barometer of a country's ability to compete on the world stage"...
However the report points out that a growing volume of research publications does not necessarily mean in increase in quality. One key indicator of the value of any research is the number of times it is quoted by other scientists in their work. Although China has risen in the "citation" rankings, its performance on this measure lags behind its investment and publication rate.
A misleading graph. The trend represent percentages of a 100% total. I'd like to see what the projected totals are and if the U.S. would be publishing fewer paper or if the data really means that China's growth rate is steeper than that for the U.S. If the U.S. publication rate is growing at a reasonable rate compare to its development and historic rates, there's no way that the U.S. can scale up to match a largely undeveloped country with a vast population with a massive expansion of its higher education system.
ReplyDeleteWith 3x the population I would expect an equilibrium to be reached where China publishes 3x as many papers as the US.
ReplyDeleteBJN, the graph is only misleading if you don't understand what it is showing. The Y-axis is not % of total manuscripts, and the sum of the totals is not 100%.
ReplyDeleteThe Y-axis shows growth in Elsevier-recorded citations for a given year. The US is not falling in productivity, but falling in rate of increase of publications - not surprising when one starts from a higher baseline.
It's a country of 1.x billion people with a huge economy - why are people so surprised that the US and other countries are being left behind? When you are talking a scale of that size, of course they are going to be ahead on the R&D curve. Consider this - they have a entire university dedicated just to railways let alone everything else they do. They are basically the world's factory. They may not yet be a political super power but they are already an economic super power .
ReplyDeleteI would like to try to link two articles that you posted on your blog today.
ReplyDeleteFirst this:
"China is on course to overtake the US in scientific output possibly as soon as 2013 "
"Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith, chair of the report, said he was "not surprised" by this increase because of China's massive boost to investment in R&D. Chinese spending has grown by 20% per year since 1999, now reaching over $100bn"
And then:
"General Electric
a) had worldwide profits of $14,200,000,000, and
b) paid NO corporate income tax in the United States."
"They say that the assertive tax avoidance of multinationals like G.E. not only shortchanges the Treasury, but also harms the economy by discouraging investment and hiring in the United States."
Things that make you go: Hmmmm
Have a nice day and keep up the good work.
Mrs. Patel, please feel free to link to anything in the blog at any time.
ReplyDelete