As reported by the Institute for the Study of War yesterday (July 28). I was so glad to see an informed discussion of the various competing groups within the Iranian regime.
Note this was written just before the latest acceleration of hostilities.
For those unfamiliar with the source: "The Institute for the Study of War advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives. ISW is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization."
Codex
ReplyDeleteMight be interested in this:
https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war
This will not end until peace has been agreed to.
"Claims" and "states" are verbs that are important
Curious to see an analysis by the same group of the American (Trumpian) side of the negotiations.
ReplyDeleteTrump isn't concerned about analysis and things like 'facts.' He trusts his 'gut' and his gut only. He's stated this publicly, and his policy decisions reflect this mentality. Now, what he doesn't state is he also tends to listen to the loudest voice in the room as well. And well, when that doesn't work, a well-timed 'donation' will usually do the trick.
ReplyDeleteI did not mean to suggest any strategy or thought in the Trumpian camp. Clearly, it is a combination of “whatever sticks” and “emperor has no clothes “ meets “dimmest bulbs in the class”, but I was wondering about an insightful, structured analysis. Maybe such is not possible when starting with a pseudorandom junta. As always, ETTD.
DeleteI agree with both of you, and I don't expect to find anywhere online a single coherent policy/plan because I don't believe such exists. I have read today that Trump is meeting with his Cabinet, so maybe something will come of that. The opinion of several analysts I've listened to on Al Jazeera is that Trump's ultimate choice will be to "declare victory and go home" but they all acknowledge that a final attempt at a punitive bombing assault is still possible. I believe the oil and gas reserves depletion will put an end point on this matter. If the strait doesn't open soon, there will be major economic consequences worldwide and domestic, and I don't think it can be "bombed open."
DeleteI know you read Al Jazeera, which I find to be one of the best news sources on the war, and they often have constructive articles like this, that include criticism of the US without getting hysterical: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/8/2/how-to-end-the-hormuz
ReplyDeleteYou can also watch live TV coverage here -
Deletehttps://www.worldmonitor.app/dashboard?zoom=1.00&view=global&timeRange=7d&layers=conflicts%2Cbases%2Chotspots%2Cnuclear%2Csanctions%2Cweather%2Ceconomic%2Cwaterways%2Coutages%2Cmilitary%2Cnatural
Depending on where you are, you need to compensate for the time difference. Daytime coverage has news, nightime lots of recorded interviews.