Haven't heard about Trump's war on Cuba? Neither had I. Apparently Cuba is dependent on oil for its electrical power generation. And their oil source was right across the water in Venezuela...
Cuba needs 100,000 barrels of oil a day to keep the lights on, experts say, and to keep its buses, trains and factories running.But because of President Trump, it is not getting nearly enough.With the Trump administration exerting control over Venezuela’s oil industry, Cuba is receiving only a trickle of the oil it needs — a shortage experts warn is increasingly likely to trigger a humanitarian crisis unlike any the country has ever experienced.From diesel to operate buses to gasoline for cars to jet fuel to power airplanes, oil is in short supply in Cuba. A nation already enduring prolonged blackouts could come to a grinding halt as reserves run out, the country plunges into darkness and its economy craters, according to energy experts and economists who follow Cuba closely.A government-run television and radio broadcaster in central Cuba announced Tuesday that it had been off the air for several days because it had run out of diesel to power its station. Without power many people also do not have running water.
This is not an accidental byproduct of the Venezuela operation. It's quite deliberate -
But following the U.S. raid, President Trump declared that oil shipments to Cuba would stop.“THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social.The plan to cripple — and ultimately topple — Cuba’s government is widely seen as a dream of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants...At its peak, Venezuela sent its ally some 100,000 barrels a day. More recently, that number had dropped to about 35,000 barrels a day, experts say.“If Cuba loses that, the impact is basically going to be catastrophic,” said Jorge R. Piñon, a former oil executive who is now a researcher for the energy institute at the University of Texas.“The chain of events is that the Cuban economy literally collapses, there is no food in the markets, the trains are not moving, the buses are not moving,” he said...Mr. Trump urged the Cuban government to “make a deal” or suffer the consequences.
This is a pure power play orchestrated by the smart people pulling Trump's strings, in the hopes that the Cuban people will overthrow the current Cuban administration.
My prediction? Hello, China. I've been indirectly tracking Chinese activity in South America and Africa for years with the help of various family expats and travelers, plus my usual reading. China plans decades in advance, compared to America which plans one election cycle or one quarterly business reporting interval ahead. The Chinese have been aggressively investing in South America, building ports and infrastucture. Same in Africa. In both cases they gain influence if not control.
Their response to Cuba? You guys want power? We lead the world in solar energy panel production. You have sunlight. Together we can light up your country.
That's my prediction. Comments invited.
Additional information at The New York Times (whence the photo on an oil tanker entering Havana)
"This is a pure power play orchestrated by the smart people pulling Trump's strings, in the hopes that the Cuban people will overthrow the current Cuban administration."
ReplyDeleteThere are no "smart" people controlling Trump. There are various levels/combinations of clever~venal~evil~knuckleheaded~base criminal~un-American, but none of them really fits the classic definition of "smart."
I fail to see any meaningful upsides for China - the proximity to the USA is a hindrance, not a boon. The market is tiny. They have no money. They have no natural resources. It would piss off the USA for no discernible reason.
ReplyDeleteThe goal of li'l Marco does seem to be to foment revolution at which time we get to establish friendly relations with a new government and set up shop for a vassal state with Hilton and Delta and Exxon and McDonald's getting access to a new market on friendly terms.
Every administration has been at war with Cuba since the revolution. Of course this is relative, ranging from bad to worse. Trump is worse, but there's no claiming the American people ever had the moral backbone to demand an end to our various embargoes and other abuses of the Cuban people. Until this becomes more about us, and less about Trump, I see no path forward.
ReplyDeleteChina does their whole Belt and Road thing in Cuba and probably already subsidises the Cuban regime more than Russia who has been cooling on support for decades.
ReplyDeletePretty sure China doesn't want to fight a conventional (or otherwise) war with anyone, when they can just get countries to put collars around their own throats.
I agree with your prediction. Cuba's market is too tiny to be more than a relative dime in China's pocket, but with the US rapidly adding allies to its enemies list, many nations are actively searching for alternative trading partners. (See: von der Leyen's and Carney's speeches at Davos, which have in 24 hours blown the cover off the previous appeasement strategy). Aiding a tiny Cuba which is being battered by a huge bully of a US makes China look reasoned and trustworthy. Good traits in a trading partner.
ReplyDeleteIt won't be about money, or even about sticking two fingers up at the US. It will be about global PR.