23 June 2016

Brexit returns surprising so far...

This evening many sources, including the American BBC broadcast, admitted that the outcome of the voting was too close to call, but that insiders, pundits, and bookmakers were cautiously predicting a "remain" victory.

But at present (10pm CDT), with 57.6% of the vote tallied, "leave" is leading "remain" by 51.5% to 48.5%.

The pound is undergoing a severe fall, as are futures for the S&P 500 - currently implying a Dow average down 500 points at the open.

Live coverage at The Telegraph, The Guardian, and the BBC.

Fascinating.  I'm going to be up late tonight.

Addendum:  Live coverage on C-SPAN and on CNN International, and of course on BBC.  And MSNBC.  And CNBC.  Birmingham results expected in 15 minutes, and probability of "leave" winning overall is now at 80%.

Pound/dollar has plunged 10%, to lowest level in 30 years ($1.35).  And this is with London still asleep at 0430 there.

Scotland has voted - countrywide - to stay in the EU.  So if the overall vote result is to "leave," the prospect arises that another referendum will be called to vote on Scotland leaving the UK.

72% voting turnout among the electorate puts the U.S. to shame by comparison.

Addendum:  BBC and ITV have now "called" the election for "leave."  Historic.

Addendum on the morning after:   I was up until the wee hours last night listening to analysts on four different broadcasts.  There is an immense amount to read this morning.  As usual I start with the discussion threads at Reddit.  Here are several of the top-rated ones:

Cameron to resign as PM

A thread for those from other countries

Miscellaneous viewpoints and comments

And one with some humor '"if other countries leave the EU." (credit for embedded image)

No blogging today - I'll be busy surfing the web and trying to peek at the future.


  1. This comment states it all

    ITV News' National Editor Allegra Stratton has said Britain's decision to leave the European Union is a defiant vote "against the establishment".

    She listed the people and organisations that had urged the country to choose to 'Remain', including the Bank of England, US President Barack Obama and David Beckham, and said that the message did not get through as the majority still voted to leave the EU.

    Last updated Fri 24 Jun 2016

  2. Hopefully now we'll find out what Brexit actually means...

  3. British citizen here, female, aged 29. The Leave result has shocked us, to the point of actual despair. Many people I know are in tears this morning, others have felt physically sick, unable to process that this has happened.

    We are in shock, and angry. Oh god, so angry. The young voted overwhelmingly to stay. The older generations voted to leave, to 'take back control', but the leave campaign never had a plan, just rhetoric. The whole campaign has been based on lies, misinformation and xenophobia, and so many have been taken in by it. The economy is already tanking, and the promises of the leave camp are already unravelling, mere hours after the results were announced. And us young people are so so angry that we have to live with the consequences of this rash, hateful decision.

    Divisionism and anger based on deliberate lies have, today, won over unity, tolerance and common sense. And I for one am terrified about what the future could now hold.

    I wish I could write something eloquent and full of fire and positivity for the future, but I just can't. I'm just terrified.

    1. That's odd. The Guardian indicates the median age of those voting leave was only slightly higher. Education and income seems to have been two more useful indicators.

    2. This makes me fear the possibility of Trump being elected.

    3. Roy, please cite your sources. These below indicate outsized support amongst older population groups. And in any case education/income can be indications as well, it isn't mutually exclusive. Els' point is simply that the people most affected long term by this decision were the most likely to vote Remain, which is demonstrably true.



    4. @unknown, you can see age has a much weaker correlation than other factors.


    5. Roy, thanks for the link.

      The metric provided there is median age. This metric creates a natural "clump" in the middle of the results. The point is not the median age of the council group, it's how the individual age demographics voted within that district. However you can still see that the youngest median age councils (those, say, median age 25-32, the bottom part of the chart) voted OVERWHELMINGLY to Remain.

    6. The graph "Voters were split by age" on the page below might give some insight into the age differences... and why the young are so appalled and angry at the end result, considering that they are the ones who have to live with the consequences.

    7. "I for one am terrified about what the future could now hold...."

      (takes off his blogging hat, puts on his "old man giving advice hat"...)

      First, get out your Hitchhiker's Guide and read the "Don't Panic" on the cover. Then put on your Joo Janta 200 Super-Chromatic Peril Sensitive Sunglasses, which should be totally opaque, and listen while someone reads the rest of this comment to you.

      I have lived through more crises than I could count, dating back even before the JFK assassination. Disruptions to the norm are always frightening - for all endeavors. The loss or gain of a key athlete results in despair or jubilation re next year's World Cup or Superbowl. But those scenarios seldom materialize as predicted.

      What you will see today is major disruptions in the financial system, mostly because the all-wise pundits never saw this coming. Consequently they were placing bets yesterday (with their money or other people's) on "remain." Had they known it would be "leave," they would have adjusted accordingly and the headlines today would be muted. As it is, there are a lot of financial positions being reversed, which is leading to wide swings in valuations.

      I would suggest a modification of an old adage: "Don't just do something - stand there." Don't make precipitous decisions this weekend re your investments, your career, your home and family. Wait for things to "sort themselves out" - which takes a little time.

      Read a lot and talk to lots of people. BUT don't make the American mistake of always reading material (or watching television stations) that are tailored to your own narrow viewpoint. Now is the time to read other viewpoints and to talk to people on the other side of the question. All your friends favored remain? Go talk to some exit supporters and listen to their reactions.

      Understand that the mass media will be deluged with opinions and advice - and that all of that noise will have underlying biases. Everyone has an agenda. If you noticed hyperbole and distortions before the vote, you'll see it magnified by a log power now.

      Whatever is going to happen will do so gradually. The shockwaves will ripple out across the Eurozone and more widely, then reflect back. The hive mind of humanity will begin adjusting to this "new normal." Money moves first, because it can. National and international relationships will be adjusted more slowly, new policies will be drafted and debated endlessly. Social change will evolve just as biological changes evolve.

      I can't say (nobody can say) if the changes will be "for the better" or "for the worse." Almost by definition there have to be both, affecting everyone differently, and changing as time passes.

      I think the biological counterpart to this sociological event would be "punctuated equilibrium," in which evolution occurs not by an endlessly gradual process of change, but rather by sudden disruptions which then settle back into a new normality.

      Now take the glasses off, put the book away, and go out and talk and read and listen. It's going to be very interesting.

    8. Some good words there, Minnesotastan - thank you for taking the time to write them. Despite the fear and trepidation there is a lot of talking and collaboration happening, which is encouraging. I will attempt to add more constructively to the discussion once the shock has worn off, and the options we have are a little clearer.

    9. Yes, thank you for taking the time to write that, it's comforting to get a wider, less hysterical perspective on the event. Every time I feel my pulse quicken due to some dire piece of news, I remember a great quote from Tom Robbins... “They were discussing the international situation, which was desperate, as usual.” That isn't an excuse to be apathetic, as much as it is a reminder that we (as a species) are constantly grappling with important problems.
      A friend had some great insight on the brexit "decisions are made by those who show up. Get informed, get involved & go vote."

    10. "decisions are made by those who show up. Get informed, get involved & go vote."

      Tonight on the evening news I heard part of an segment about Brits signing a probably-fruitless petition to redo the referendum. The signees included some "leave" voters, one of whom said he didn't know what the first referendum was about and he didn't think his vote was going to count anyway. Duh.

    11. The young voted overwhelmingly to stay.

      This is actually incorrect. The young that voted, voted overwhelmingly to stay. But most young voters could not be bothered to show up and vote. And while polls get corrected for demographics, votes don't.

      Tell all your friends who didn't bother to vote: Voting matters.

  4. Hi,
    I'm saddened as well, 55yr male, voted to stay, and unfortunately out-voted by narrow-minded selfish bigots who seem to think that we will now go back to ounces and inches, re-equip the RAF with spitfires and become great again - fuelled by the neverending coverage of the 1st and 2nd world wars on TV.

    The rhetoric to leave was similar to that of Trump and as baseless... all these foreigners are coming over to kill us in our beds, or something.

    I visualise Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland staying in the EU and leaving England to our own devices, and the government has enough assets to sell that it will look like we are doing ok for a while (National Parks, etc).

    Our empire definitely ended with a whimper rather than a bang.
    another phil

  5. The EU Flag has 12 stars, it is just a symbolic historical number. It isn't representative of the 26-27 member states it has. This isn't New England and the Thirteen Colonies. Removing one star is the opposite of symbolic or witty, it's just flauntingly ignorant.

    As far as Britain is concerned. The lesson is: direct democracy is not democracy at all, it's mob rule.

    1. I'm curious as to what you would propose to replace "direct democracy."

    2. A democracy where all are equal so no sovereign.

      Some form of proportional representation.

      Subsidiarity - A local government system that truly goes doen to Parishes, everywhere, with the next level up being unilateral, and to have money raising and spending powers and to control every public service in its own borders, buses bins and bandaging included.

      A Justice System with representatives of elected authorities but independent of them.

      A second chamber of parliament made up by some elected, and some representatives of significant organisations, for the time being.

      Some sort of elected Head of State.

    3. I'm curious as to what you would propose to replace "direct democracy."

      No need to replace anything. Just ban referendums and leave the representative democracy do its work.

      Direct democracy is very different from representative democracy.

    4. At the risk of putting words in your mouth, what you seem to be suggesting is that representatives of the people would not necessarily vote the same way that the people want.

  6. Hi,
    kudos for using 'punctuated equilibrium' in a political post. As SJG used to say 'if you rewind time prior to the event there is no apparent way you can predict the ultimate winners and losers in the new normality'

    Interesting the turnout of 72% was higher than the recent general election of 66%.

    'direct democracy' is the best we've got - both a blessing and a curse...
    cheers another phil

  7. This morning I was told by a middle-aged Englishwoman occupying a junior position where I work that my American wife, a successful Yale-educated professional who has lived and worked in Britain for many years, "should not be allowed to take a British person's job".

    That sums it up - ignorant and lazy people deluded into thinking that, if only the foreigners could be made to go away, a life of ease and plenty would descend upon them. Racism and xenophobia have carried the day.


Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...