Anomalous behavior in financial markets

I did not blog it at the time, but when Trump overthrew the government of Venezuela with his military action, an article in The Atlantic noted that some people profited very handsomely by correctly betting on that outcome via the prediction markets:

When U.S. Delta Force commandos slipped into Venezuelan airspace over the weekend, they did so in secrecy. And yet, in the hours before President Donald Trump gave the final order for the strike, someone bet more than $20,000 that Nicolás Maduro would be ousted as the country’s leader by the end of January.

On Polymarket, the online platform that lets people wager on almost anything, an anonymous trader somewhere in the world placed a series of suspiciously well-timed bets. Using a fresh account created last month, the individual made just a few bets in the days leading up to the raid, according to The Wall Street Journal—all on the possibility of imminent regime change in Venezuela—and appeared to come away with more than $400,000.

The Guardian made the same observation and interpretation:

The online wager platform Polymarket has angered some gamblers by declaring it will not settle millions of dollars’ worth of bets on a US invasion of Venezuela, arguing that the capture of the then president, Nicolás Maduro, does not qualify.

Before Donald Trump’s forces seized Maduro on Saturday morning, some traders appeared to have anticipated the shock move by placing bets on “prediction markets”.

These were not random "man on the street" bets.  Someone had inside knowledge and bet accordingly.  The publicly available data do not allow one to judge whether the people doing this are friends of Trump, or military commanders, or low-level communications staff.

Now it has happened again.  The embed at the top of this post is a cropped photo of my television, which was tuned in to Bloomberg at about the start of the trading day.  Donald Trump had announced (via Truth Social for crying out loud...) that he was going to scale back military action, which might lead to a easing of tensions and the reopening of the Gulf of Hormuz and (theoretically) lowering the price of oil.

The circled data point in the charts show that someone (??who??) traded options on the S&P 500 (proxy for the general market) and oil futures to the extent of more than a billion dollars IIRC.   The purple line in the bottom graph is either Brent or West Texas Intermediate, which immediately traded down when the market opened (and the equity indexes immediately traded up).

Someone knew this would happen.  Again, available data (at least public data) don't show whether it was a Trump friend.  But somebody is making big bucks from Trump's decisions.