Commentary from John Authers at Bloomberg:
"The way that Yevgeny Prigozhin declared a mutiny, advanced a long way toward Moscow, and then agreed to stop and go home makes no sense. Neither does the way Putin accused him of treason, and then appeared to agree to forget about all of it. We still have a lot to learn about what just happened, as well as what will happen next. It’s just faintly possible that the whole thing was staged, for some reason nobody can yet grasp. But I don’t think this can possibly be the end of the story. Even if it was all some weird charade, what Prigozhin did took Russia into new territory.These words came from Prigozhin on Telegram. They’ve been widely disseminated. They cannot be unsaid. And at present, he isn’t going to be punished for saying them. It’s hard to see how this doesn’t profoundly change the balance of forces in Russia, and indeed Putin’s grip on power. The translation was provided by Marko Papic of Clocktower Group:"As far as I know, Zelenskiy was open to anything when he became president. All we had to do was get down from our high horse and go make a deal. The entire western Ukraine is populated by genetically Russian people. What is happening now is that we are just killing Russians...Why was the war needed? It was needed so that a bunch of _____ [bad word] at the top could show their might and get some good PR. Second, the war was needed for the oligarchs. It was needed for the clan that today pretty much rules Russia. This oligarch clan receives everything it possibly can."These things have been unsayable until now. The possibility that the whole invasion was a bad idea from the get-go, motivated by internal machinations, is now in the Russian political bloodstream. Even if this was some brilliantly staged deception from a John le Carre novel to give Putin the excuse to clamp down, it makes no sense that Prigozhin was allowed to say this. However it ends, and whether or not Prigozhin is still alive in a few weeks, this episode must weaken Putin and the current regime. And it cannot be over."
No, I'm pretty certain it's over. Russia has one of these fairly regularly and they're useful to Putin to shake out the disloyal. As for Ukraine, the UKR counteroffensive was a failure, and I'm not certain how they plan on replacing the men lost. The time to call a ceasefire and negotiate a settlement was months ago, now Ukraine is in a worse position.
ReplyDelete100% agree.
DeleteBloomberg's Auther's comments are loaded with non-sequiturs! As is this twkiwibi (?) article. Is there a 'point' here?
ReplyDeleteYou don't specify what non-sequiturs are present, but some of what you perceive may have happened because for TYWKIWDBI I never repost source material in toto - I just post excerpts, inviting readers to go to the source material. You should read his analysis/commentary at Bloomberg before launching into criticisms.
DeleteAnd no, I'm not making a "point." Just citing other people's opinions.
IronHorse - may your country be invaded by your neighboring country. Before which, they have repressed your people, culture, language for hundreds of years. Then, re-post your reply.
ReplyDelete(signed) a Ukrainian reader
This was all staged, If Prighozin is able to take his troops to a safe haven in Belarus once the Ukrainian counter offensive starts to succeed, Wagner will attack Ukraine from the north.
ReplyDeleteHe took his troops with him to Belarus? I thought he went alone or with a small entourage. Putin had announced the troops had a choice of being inducted into the Russian military of be mustered out.
ReplyDeletexoxoxoBruce
Russia makes me unhappy. I like the Russian people I have met, but on the whole their country is a mess. I always count my fingers after I shake hands with a Russian. This makes me sad. I am with Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteCount your rings: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-how-vladimir-putin-stole-a-super-bowl-ring-from-the-patriots-robert-kraft/
DeleteThere is obviously more going on here than it appears. I suspect this is all political theater with Putin still pulling the strings... With the goal of replacing his Minister of Defense and top generals, blaming them for "misleading" him... Which would allow him to stop trying to win in Ukraine and cut his losses... The offramp he needs. Guessing he will still keep Crimea, Donbas, and as much of the land bridge to Crimea as possible though.
ReplyDelete