07 April 2026

Lusitano stallion


One of the winning photos in the 2026 Sony World Photography Awards open competition.
Celestial Dance. Shortlist, Motion. This young Lusitano stallion was allowed to move freely during a photography session, enabling the photographer to capture its powerful and graceful movements.
Credit Lorea Hausheer, via The Atlantic.  Posted so I don't end the blogging day with a damn war story at the top of the column.

NASA team during the Artemis launch


These are the scientists in the Science Evaluation Room, built by NASA specifically for Artemis missions, designed to support lunar science and planetary observations alongside mission operations.  Via Newsweek, where the discussion focuses on the composition of the team.

An existential threat to Pacific island micronations


Yesterday TYWKIWDBI received a comment from reader Jim, who was addressing points relevant to the recent post about international mail disruptions.   His focus was on the island nation of Niue, and his point was that mail disruption is only one aspect of a huge threat to Pacific island nations resulting from large increases in the costs of fuel oil.
Amongst the pacific islands, there are big ones with multiple options (standouts are Fiji/Nadi, Tonga/Nuku’alofa, Solomon Islands/Honiara, Samoa/Faleolo, New Caledonia/Noumea, and of course Hawaii being of least concern), then there are the littler ones with maybe one or two airline choices like the Marianas, Marshall Islands, Cook Islands, Palau, Kiribati (which isn’t tiny by population, but was never well-covered logistically), Micronesia, etc…. 
 
Then you have the tiny ones that were almost always “too hard basket” jobs. Some were harder than others, occasionally I could get a rate to/from one of these, but I would sometimes have to offer to get a client service to/from a location nearish their target, then advise them to contact charter services to meet up with where I could get them. Examples were Pitcairn (sea only), Nauru, Rapanui/Easter Island, Niue, Tokelau and Tuvalu, and possibly some others I’m forgetting. 
 
If the Middle East nonsense is to continue for a long time, I fear for the food security of many of the inhabitants of the islands, especially those of Kiribati and Nauru, which IIRC, have absolutely nowhere near the ability to feed their local populations without regular food imports. Niue may be in less immediate danger of food insecurity simply by virtue of having much lower population density. If things deteriorate, I foresee humanitarian relief missions to the islands being undertaken by AU+NZ (and perhaps Chile for Rapanui), and (the cynic in me compels me to add) almost certainly China, who for some time have been trying to curry favour amongst the pacific nations, most notably the Solomons of late.
 
This is perhaps pessimistic of me, but if the situation continues to deteriorate, we may see large scale de-population of some of the less food-secure and economically vulnerable pacific islands, especially those more vulnerable to sea level rises, for whom the writing is somewhat on the wall already. A geopolitical shove added to the already keenly-felt climate-change push might be enough to convince many to head for higher ground, both literally and figuratively.
(boldface added by me for those who speed-read TYWKIWDBI).  I totally agree that China is likely to step in.  As the U.S. loses its credibility around the world, China is able and willing to step in to be the new world leader.

Here's that link from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, if the one in the embed isn't clickable.

Potential effects of the Trump/Netanyahu war on Iran on world economics


An extended (8-minute) discussion of current economic and market conditions by Mohamed El-Erian.  He makes note of the little-appreciated "side effect" of inflation, which is demand destruction.

The interview was conducted by and posted by Faux News, so I have no control over the freeze-frame image in the embed - but this was the most extended and most current interview I have seen with El-Erian, so I didn't want to pass it up.

It doesn't take long


From the time I left my house until I got back it was 11 minutes on my phone's stopwatch.  A simple ballot and an efficient crew at our neighborhood church polling location.

Addendum:  
In Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, the Democratic-backed candidate sailed to a nearly 20-point landslide victory Tuesday in a battleground Trump carried less than two years ago. Meanwhile, a Georgia Democrat slashed Trump’s margin of victory by two thirds in the state’s reddest district despite losing the election — the most significant overperformance the party has seen across all seven House special elections so far this cycle.

The results in the battleground states — home to key Senate, gubernatorial and House races — are the latest repudiation from voters of Trump and his agenda and flashing warning signs for the GOP heading into November.

Wisconsin in last presidential election:


Results from yesterday's state Supreme Court election: 


Res ipsa loquitur.

05 April 2026

Childhood punishments become adult goals


I didn't want to end the bloggin day with all that war crap at the top of the column, so I'll shift gears to this aphorism.  Perhaps later I can find a nice photo or such, but right now I need to watch the end of the NCAAW championship game.

Screencaps from Al Jazeera


Not emphasized on American media are the antiwar protests going on in Israel.  There apparently is a lot of opposition to Netanyahu, either because of his principles or out of fear of retaliation, but the people there may have as little control over their leader as we do.


Yemen is situated quite a distance from the Persian Gulf, but in close proximity to the Red Sea and the access to the Suez Canal.  This image from last week when the Houthis joined Iran and Hezbollah in sending missiles against Israel, with mixed success.


Also not featured much on American media is the Israeli push into Lebanon in their efforts to lay waste to the southern part of the country to create a "buffer zone" from hostile forces there.  This image posted after an Israeli "double-tap" attack - a rocket to a residential neighborhood followed by a second one schedule to arrive when rescuers and journalists were present at the scene.


I think I mentioned in the Facebook excerpts that Iran is responding to destruction of its own universities by counterattacking American-related universities in the Gulf region.


A screencap from April 1 in response to Trump's claim that negotiations were underway.  The Iranian counterproposals are diametrically opposite to Trump's 15-point "plan" that any intelligent observer would see they are not compatible.


From April 5 (today), part of the message the Iranian parliament sent to Trump.  The phrase in the screencap "because you insist on following Netanyahu's commands" shows how they think the dynamics of the war are set.  More of the message to Trump was posted in The Times of Israel: he said "“Your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living HELL for every single family..." in response to Trump's claim that Iran will be living in Hell.

If any readers here do decide to intermittently monitor Al Jazeera's broadcasts (note they come not from Iran but from the Gulf state of Qatar), you can do so via a link at the World Monitor app, or via their You Tube channel (both are in English).  If you do so and happen to view at a time when this young woman is providing analysis -


- I would encourage you to pay special attention to her commentary.  I only picked up the closing moments of an interview, and her perception of the power play between Trump and the Iranians is superb.  I believe that she is Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy based in Washington DC.  She has ten years experience covering US/Iran relationships.  She is also the host of The Iran Podcast.

Gleanings from Facebook


I'm sure it's reasonable to assume that the "one million" number is exaggerated, but it's worth remembering that this is a country of 93 million people, whose lives are being systematically ruined by Trump and Netanyahu.  


This is "old" war news from more than a week ago, covering the destruction of one very advanced aircraft.  I don't remember whether it was the Telegraph coverage or commentary elsewhere that made special note of the position of the damage, which indicated specific targeting of the radar bubble where the hi tech was stored, suggesting (but not proving) that the attack was achieved using "smart" drones or drones guided by precise navigation coordinates, as perhaps could be provided by Russian satellites.


A good map of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, from a different perspective.  Kharg Islad would be the little brown dot above the word "force."  Note the distance from the actual Strait of Hormuz at the bend.  There is a lot of real estate in between.  I think the distance is about the same as from Boston, Mass to South Carolina.  Found in the New York Times, as part of an informative article (not from Facebook, but it seemed to fit in here on a topical basis).


The image is probably AI-generated, but the sentiment expressed is accurate.  Several spokespersons for Iran have expressed on Al Jazeera that Iran's response to American/Israeli aggression would be "proportionate."  In other words, now that Israel and America have attacked non-military targets in Iran, Iran feels justified in targeting non-military targets in Gulf States that are supporting the war effort.  This includes American university branches in the region, which I understand have been evacuated.  And as I write this I think there is a report of a desalination plant having been hit last night.

(BTW, I'm not enjoying posting wartime coverage.  I have an interesting article about head lice, and one about the U.S. leading the world in toilet paper consumption and a great Agatha Christie quote and other stuff I'd rather blog, but this war material is important, and I can't just stick my head in the sand and ignore it.)

Grim forecasts for the U.S. economy


The embed is a screencap from Facebook several days ago, but I've seen a similar forecast during a live discussion on Bloomberg TV.  The next Consumer Price Index report is scheduled for this coming Friday, April 10, before the markets open.  This will cover the month of March and thus will be the first one to reflect rising oil prices from the U.S./Israel war on Iran.


The second embed is also from before this weekend.  The Federal Reserve is in an impossibly terrible position if the anticipated "stagflation" occurs.  The investment community has been counting on a decrease in federal funds rates, arguing over one vs. two cuts in the year ahead.  More recently they have expected no rate cuts.  Now the possibility of a rate increase looms.  

Before we started this war, nobody would have imagined the Fed increasing rates.  It's probably not priced into the market now, but even the possibility of a rise in the future will have major reverberations on equity prices and bond yields.

"Pentagon Pizza Index" explained


In the wee hours of the night while doomsurfing for world geopolitical news, I noticed while looking at Euronews a reddish icon near the top that said "DEFCON 2 44%", and when I clicked on it, the pulldown showed a "Pentagon Pizza Index" as the index for the DEFCON rating.

Wikipedia has this to offer:
"The Pentagon pizza theory is the informal observation that spikes in fast food orders, particularly pizza delivery orders, near US government buildings such as The Pentagon, CIA headquarters, and the White House often occur right before a major international crisis...

In 1990, Frank Meeks, a Domino's franchisee in Washington, told the Los Angeles Times about an extraordinary observation of some unusual late-night deliveries to the Pentagon, CIA and the White House. Meeks had noted that on August 1, the CIA had ordered a one-night record of 21 pizzas, and the following day Iraq invaded Kuwait, starting the Gulf War. At first, Meeks thought it was just a coincidence, but he observed a similar surge in deliveries in December 1998 during the impeachment hearings of Bill Clinton...

In a statement to Newsweek in 2025, the Department of Defense denied the theory, claiming that the Pentagon has numerous internal food vendors that are available to late-night workers. It criticized the accuracy of the timeline provided by the Pentagon Pizza Report.
I found the Pentagon Pizza Index homepage.  It seems to monitor the number of pizza ordered from various places near the Pentagon, but has no evidence for where they are being delivered.  I think the page is run mostly for humor, as evidenced by this graphic:

04 April 2026

International mail disruptions


From the USPS website.  None of these are surprising, but it's interesting to note that they are advising people not even to try sending mail now.  Imagine how this is rippling through the business communities involved.

(test)


I'm having trouble trying to tranfer a video from my Facebook page to my blog here on Blogspot.  Not sure how to tweak the code - but I can't fix it now because I have plans for midday today.

Also don't know anything about the source for this, but the claims being made do tend to echo what I've heard intermittently on Al Jazeera. There is a war of disinformation going on, and I don't know how this fits in.  The video uses the face of George Will, but I'm sure this is generated by AI from a written text because of various glitches in pronunciation.  I may erase this by tonight if I don't find other confirmatory evidence.

Years ago, probably during the first Trump presidency, I remember speculating (silently to myself, not here on the blog) whether if Trump were to order a nuclear strike or some other catastrophic order, whether the Joint Chiefs of Staff would tell him "Sir, we need to move you to a secure facility first," and then would take him to a bunker in Washington, lock him in, and announce to the Congress and the American people that they have effected a bloodless coup and ask the country to select a new leader.  Trump has removed most of the military brass who disagree with him, but I still wonder whether such a turn of events would be possible.  It would result in a total political clusterfuck, but might be better than the alternative.

01 April 2026

Trump really said this. Out loud. In public.


I found confirmation at The New Republic:
Donald Trump doesn’t think the federal government should fund child care, Medicare, or Medicaid.

At an Easter Lunch reception at the White House Wednesday, the president told guests what exactly he thought about what the U.S. should be prioritizing, and it doesn’t bode well for the government’s most widely used and popular social programs.

“I said to [Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought], ‘Don’t send any money for daycare because the United States can’t take care of daycare.’ That has to be up to a state. We can’t take care of daycare. We’re a big country. We have 50 states. We have all these other people,” Trump said. “We’re fighting wars. We can’t take care of daycare. You got to let a state take care of daycare and they should pay for it, too. They should pay. They’ll have to raise their taxes, but they should pay for it. And we could lower our taxes a little bit to them to make up.”


“It’s not possible for us to take care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things. They can do it on a state basis. You can’t do it on a federal. We have to take care of one thing: military protection. We have to guard the country. But all these little things, all these little scams that have taken place, all you have to you have to let states take care of them,” Trump continued.

Newspaper clippings


Gleanings from recent entries at Bad Newspaper - a reliable refuge in a world of geopolitical turmoil.\

Beavers as landscape architects


There's nothing fundamentally "new" in this video about beavers being reintroduced into Scotland, but the results are impressive.

Related:  
A "rescue beaver" starts building dams inside a house (3-minute video)

Trailcam video compilation of one year activity on a beaver dam in northern Minnesota (6-minute video)

"Lunar Grazing Model" - a celestial bovine containment system

Posted at NASA's APOD (Astronomy Picture of the Day) website.   

Related:  Historic footage from the BBC of the Swiss spaghetti harvest (1957):

Whom do you believe?


While the world jumps with joy and the financial markets soar upward on an announcement from Donald Trump that productive peace talks are underway, this screencap is from Al Jazeera this morning.

Could be empty rhetoric from their side... or perhaps both sides are just reloading their weapons.  Commodity traders must be having conniption fits.  And people with inside information are making immense profits from this volatility.

30 March 2026

"Funeral bread" explained


These are the sole ingredients of a potluck offering that’s popular in some parts of Minnesota and North Dakota. Some people use breads with a little less flair, like pumpernickel or rye, but the cinnamon version has its die-hard fans, especially in Roseau, Minn...

“When you go to our local grocer — we only have one in town — on the Super One display is fresh baked, in-house cinnamon swirl bread with a pyramid of Cheez Whiz displayed next to it,” said Sinnamon Krings, Roseau promotions director. “To someone not from here you might wonder why but to a local it’s as common as peanut butter and jelly.”

Those who love the combination are often nostalgic about it and remember eating it as a kid after church services or funerals. In some circles, it’s called “funeral bread.”..

The company debuted Cheez Whiz in 1952, first in Britain, where Kraft marketed it as an easy way to make the sauce for Welsh rarebit.  When the product landed on U.S. supermarket shelves the next year, Kraft already had the perfect way to introduce it to shoppers — on the company-sponsored television program Kraft TV Theatre... On Sept. 8, Sasser wrote that during that week’s program, Kraft TV Theatre demonstrated a recipe that is very close to funeral bread: Melba toast spread with Cheez Whiz and topped with sliced olives. Could this be the dish’s origin?
This may have been a standard sandwich in northwestern Minnesota, but not where I grew up in the southern part of the state.  The closest sandwich to this that I can remember eating regularly from the 1950s used cream cheese and olives (not Cheez Whiz), and we ate it on puffy white slices of Wonder Bread, not cinnamon toast.  

But this "funeral bread" looks yummy  I'll give it a try.

Image credit Erica Pearson via the Minnesota Star Tribune.

Horrific and incredible tweet by Trump


I am so very very very tired of posting war-related matters on TYWKIWDBI, but this turn of events cannot go unmentioned.  The embeds above are copypasted from Facebook.

The tweet by Trump is real and accurate.  I saw it displayed this morning on Bloomberg television's "Opening Bell" segment, accompanied by an excerpt of a video of Trump being interviewed on a plane in which he says talks with Iran are going "very well" but they are difficult because after we talk with people "we negotiate with them but then we have to keep blowing them up." (!!!)

The response by Alt National Park Service is to my knowledge correct.  These threats by Trump may be just "jawboning" and empty rhetoric, similar to the Iranian boasts that they would incinerate America "boots on the ground."  It is my understanding that since taking office, Trump has replaced the top brass i the Joint Chiefs of Staff with men who are more hawkish, but I believe seasoned warriors would be hesitant to implement war plans that are internationally-recognized war crimes.

The stock market opened up this morning in response to weekend claims that "talks are underway," perhaps referring to third-party talks hosted by Pakistan.  I took this morning's upward move as an opportunity to add to my bearish positions.

29 March 2026

"The Life List"


(I'll write a proper review later.  Today I'm in a hurry to get gardening and other things done, but didn't want to leave the blog with war stuff at the top, so this is a complete change of direction.  Highly recommended for those who enjoy quiet, pleasant movies during times of global catastrophes).

Details and comparisons later.  I think it's on Netflix; if not, the DVD may be in your library...

Mispronouncing Henry David Thoreau's last name

As reported by The New York Times -
It turns out that the accent does not belong on the second syllable, as in “merlot” or “Poirot.” It rests on the first syllable, like “thorough” — as in, “I am thoroughly confused by this strange turn of events.”

This front-loaded pronunciation has apparently always been there, hiding in plain sight in the halls of academe, even if no one told us about it. “There is a consensus that “THU-ro” is the correct way to pronounce it,” John J. Kucich, co-president of the nonprofit Thoreau Alliance, said in an interview. “But somehow “Thu-RO” — here Kucich uttered the word the common way — “got into the culture, and it’s in the water to pronounce it that way.”..

“People aren’t used to seeing that name; it’s not a New England name, and they pronounced it THU-ro” she said in an interview. So did the man himself, judging from ample contemporary evidence.

For instance, there’s an 1860 journal entry from Thoreau’s neighbor Bronson Alcott, the father of Louisa May Alcott. “Comes Thoreau and sups with us,” Alcott wrote. “He is rightly named Thorough … the pervading Thor, the sturdy sensibility and force in things.”

And in a 1918 letter from Edward Emerson, son of Thoreau’s friend Ralph Waldo Emerson: “We always called my friend Thórow, the h sounded, and accent on the first syllable,” he wrote...

(Both pronunciations are actually technically incorrect, at least from the French perspective, he adds; the proper French pronunciation would be “tu-row,” with the “th” pronounced as a hard T and an accent on neither syllable.)

The Houthis (Yemen) enter the war


As reported in The Guardian:
The US-Israeli war with Iran has expanded with the entry of Houthi forces in Yemen, representing a dangerous spread of the conflict and bringing with it the threat of more damage to the global economy...

Multiple outlets reported that the Houthis, the Iran-aligned militant group in Yemen, had attacked Israel for a second time in less than 24 hours, after joining the war on Saturday.

Despite US claims to have devastated Iran’s military, Reuters cited intelligence sources as saying Washington could only be certain it had destroyed a third of Iran’s missile and drone arsenal.

US media reported that a missile and drone attack on Prince Sultan airbase in Saudi Arabia wounded at least 12 US soldiers, two of them seriously. Drones also struck Kuwait international airport on Saturday, causing significant damage to its radar system...

The entry of the Houthis, who control Yemen’s most populous areas, poses a direct threat to the Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, a second major choke point in the supply chain of energy supplies and other trade in and out of the Middle East.

With Iran’s near total closure of the strait of Hormuz, a shutdown of the Bab al-Mandab, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, would amplify the already grave impact of the war on the global economy, and could also reignite a Saudi-Yemen conflict that caused huge humanitarian suffering for seven years before a 2022 truce.

Since the US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February, Saudi Arabia has been able to divert some of its oil exports by pipeline to the Red Sea. Saudi commentators have said that if this route was also threatened, Riyadh could also enter the war directly.
More at the link.  And more re the Houthis.

I think it's clear to anyone not relying on U.S. news sources that this war is not winding down anytime soon.   The Trump/Netanyahu preemptive attack on Iran has unleashed longstanding grievances in the Middle East.   Some readers here will be old enough to remember the Iran/Iraq war in the 1980s that resulted in 500,000 deaths.  Now the Saudis are encouraging Trump to strike a definitive blow.  Yemen may have the capability of significantly impairing access to the Red Sea/Suez Canal.  The Kurds are being encouraged to join the regional assault.  Iran will attack its Gulf neighbors who are assisting the U.S. and they know that impairing oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz will severely hurt European economies, putting pressure on the U.S. not to proceed with a land war.  The U.S. is no longer in a position to "declare victory and go home."  I've heard more than one analyst say that "when you kick a hornet's nest, the hornets decide when it's over."

And where does Iran get the resources to continue the war after sustaining so much damage from aerial bombinb?  Probably from Russia, which is treating this as a "proxy war" and is accumulating immense wealth from its oil reserves (including potentially selling to Europe!), which it can use to resume its assault on Ukraine.  China also has vast oil reserves stored and has military capacities probably equal to the United States.  Any involvement by them so far appears to be deeply behind the scene.

Informed discussion of the advice "never to get involved in a land war in Asia."

Word for the day:  "Clusterfuck" is a vulgar slang term for an extremely chaotic, disorganized, or severely mismanaged situation, often where multiple things go wrong simultaneously. Originating as U.S. military slang in 1969, it describes a "total mess" or "shitshow". It is sometimes used to describe a complex, messy, and unproductive endeavor.

28 March 2026

"The Remains of the Day" (1993)


This classic movie was released in 1993, fifteen years before I started this blog, so I've never reviewed it here.  But after re-watching it last evening, I feel the trailer should be saved in TYWKIWDBI as a heads-up for any readers who may not have been paying attention to movies 30 years ago.

The movie is a Merchant-Ivory production, presenting an extended and often sympathetic character study of one man's obsessive devotion to his life's work - serving the grand house where he is employed, and serving his master (however defective), at a cost of his family life and his personal life.

The movie was nominated for eight Academy Awards (Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Director, Screenplay, Costume, Music, and Art Direction), and Hopkins won the BAFTA that year.  But be aware that this is not a "fun" movie, with a happy Hollywood ending.  Its power lies in the absolutely superb acting of Anthony Hopkins and Emma Thompson.  

Puffer jacket stuffed with pickles


The product is offered by the United Kingdom division of Kentucky Fried Chicken to promote their marketing of pickle-enhanced foods (Pepsi, french fries).  Personally, I'd prefer stuffing my half of my jacket with olives, but everyone has different tastes.  

Image cropped for size from the original at the Neatorama via.

It may cost you more to return a rental car early

From the travel section of the New York Times:
"Last summer, I flew to Geneva, Switzerland, and picked up a rental car from Budget for a two-week vacation in neighboring France. More precisely, I reserved the car for 13 days and four hours, for an estimated 866 Swiss francs, worth about $1,060 at the time. I ended up returning the vehicle not just on time but a little earlier than planned — after 13 days and 30 minutes — so imagine my surprise when the final bill came to 1,545 francs. The lion’s share of the difference was in the base rental rate, so I assume I lost my discount for returning the car early. I’ve heard of car rental companies recalculating rates for returning a weeklong rental a day early, but hours? That is ridiculous."
The explanation:
The car rental industry is notorious for charging customers for services they do not need or sometimes never agreed to, but collecting what amounts to a $595 fee for bringing back a car a few hours early seems beyond the pale.

Even more astonishingly, perhaps, is that after examining the documentation you sent me and combing through Budget’s policies, I now believe it was not even a question of hours. You could have saved $595 by returning the car just 10 minutes later than you did...

Because the vehicle was returned earlier than the 14-day period, the rental no longer qualified for the weekly promotional pricing,” Lauren Bristow, the director of marketing communications for Avis Budget Group, wrote in response to my emailed questions. “As a result, the system recalculated the rental at the applicable shorter-term rate.”

And I’ll admit that Budget’s “General Conditions of Rental” (Part 12, if you’re following along) does back her up. “Because special offers and discounts often relate to specific time slots,” it reads, “you may even end up having to pay more if you bring back the vehicle early.”
Offered without comment.

Word for the day: kerning


In typography, kerning is the process of adjusting the space between two specific characters, or letterforms, in a font... The term "keming" is sometimes used informally to refer to poor kerning (the letters r and n placed too closely together being easily mistaken for the letter m).

26 March 2026

Reconsidering Rapa Nui (Easter Island)


Rapa Nui (Easter Island) is a UNESCO World Heritage site because of its monumental statues (moai).  For several hundred years it has captured the public's imagination because of its mind-staggering physical remoteness and the seemingly incredible feat of humans locating and colonizing the island, located 2,000 miles from the nearest island in East Polynesia:


Island at the Edge of the World: The Forgotten History of Easter Island is a new book recently acquired by our library system, which I borrowed after reading that the author offered a new vision of the history of the island.  It is indeed an awesome book, which I have no doubt will become a standard reference citation, but it is probably TMI for the average reader because it examines every single detail about the history of the island, giving new emphasis to original ethnographic research conducted a century ago and debunking many modern interpretations.

"Conventional wisdom" (repeated in pop science articles and television shows) suggests as follows:
"That theory argues that Islanders let their population outgrow their home's capacity to support them.   In the quest for food they overfished the sea and destroyed soils, and in desperate religious tumoil they cut down all the trees to move statues.  Society collapsed in a fit of war and cannibalism.  When Europeans first saw Rapa Nui, it is said, they witnessed the result: a devastated land with few people, who could not have created the island's spectacular archaeological legacy." (xix)  
Thor Heyerdahl speculated and tried to prove that Rapa Nui had been colonized by white people who had crossed the Atlantic, built the South American civilizations and then continued west across the Pacific. 

The book convincingly debunks previous speculations.  The author notes for example that the population was not starving when the first Europeans arrived.  In fact, they offered food to the sailors.  They had an elaborate system for harvesting intermittent rainfall and had developed farming techniques suitable to the terrain.  The state of their society in modern times is in part a reflection of their more recent history:
"Lost in the haunting seduction of this eco-collapse theory was the true history of what the Islanders had endured at the hands of colonial imperialists.  Within a century and a half of having been found by Dutch sailors, Rapa Nui's people had been kidnapped, sold into slavery, killed off by new diseases, and removed to other islands.  They were all but extinguished.  Survivors were housed in a walled settlement, forbidden to return to their traditional homes and gardens and their sacred places, which were overrun by sheep and cattle making money for businesses half a world away.  Their history was written by outsiders who could not credit them with the abilities their monuments revealed... Those abandoned monuments were plundered and restored to make a museum for tourists... Their ancestors were an example to the world of the worst imaginable negligence, of behavior so lacking in respect for life, for the very soils that nurtured their existence, that they brought down their own future in a violent orgy of self-destruction..." (143)
An interesting book to browse.

Government debt vs. GDP


The embedded image is harvested from Facebook, but I will vouch for the economic credentials of Mohamed El-Erian, whose opinions on world economics I have valued for years.

Posted because the economic consequences of the U.S./Israel war on Iran are going to be extreme.  There is almost no foreseeable outcome that will not adversely affect most of the major economies of the world.

And while I'm on Facebook, I'll add these other items -


25 March 2026

Introducing a "from Facebook" category in TYWKIWDBI


I have deeply conflicting feelings about Facebook, which I joined last year.  One the one hand it allows me simple and frequent communication with friends, classmates, neighbors, relatives.  On the other hand it is loaded with utter crap, including extraordinarily realistic AI creations and misleading clickbait. Of course on the third hand it reassures me by feeding me more and more material I agree with because its algorithm is designed to do just that.

Intermixed with all that is a potential abundance of "ordinary" (nonpolitical, nonpersonal) postings from history groups, science and technology groups, scholarly institutions, and reputable news sources.  It's sometimes hard to tell which is which.

Take for example the screencap embedded above.  Interesting, certainly.  And makes sense.  If you are already fucking up the ecosystem of the abyssal plane of the world's oceans by harvesting manganese nodules, it makes sense to add the capability to do a little snip-snip on a rival's undersea cables.

I don't have time to chase down primary sources all the time.  I made a screencap of that item, but did not go to the South China Morning Post to confirm that the article exists.  

Going forward, anything I post in the "from Facebook" category should be viewed with suspicion.  And I'm not providing links because I don't want to support clickbait.  You can search for relevant info elsewhere.  

Assessing geopolitical turmoil


The embed is a screencap from Facebook, which I haven't tracked to the primary source, but I quite agree with the expressed sentiment.

I am disappointed (but not surprised) that major news outlets tend to report on what Trump is saying without adding any nuance or interpretation.  Perhaps that is their perceived role, or perhaps they are under pressure not to openly criticize this authoritarian president.

Personally, I have been monitoring Al Jazeera every night.  They have a You Tube channel that broadcasts live in English 24/7.  Whether you hear live news or recordings depends on your global time lag (mine is 9 hours).  The broadcasts originate from Qatar and include interviews with Middle Eastern and European leaders or their representatives.

What I hear just from brief visits to that site is quite different from what I hear on American sites.  This morning the equity, bond, and oil markets are reacting positively to reports that U.S. and Iranian representatives "are talking" and that "there are hopes for a settlement."

The underlying truth (I think) is that the Trump administration has issued a set of 15 guidelines (no nuclear weapons capability etc).  Trump is expecting "unconditional surrender" including control of Iranian oil production.  Iranian leaders have issued their "talking points" which include "sovereignty over their nation and the Gulf of Hormuz" and "reparations for damages done by the U.S. and Israel."

Does anyone actually think there is serious talking going on.  Nonsense.  Everyone knows that this apparent cease-fire is nothing more than an opportunity for both sides to reload.  The U.S. has elite ground forces en route to the conflict area:


For their part, the Iranians are at least talking locally about unceasing resistance:


Trump and Hegseth seem to feel they can bomb Iran into submission - a sentiment that scarily echoes what I remember from coming of age during the Vietnam war, when the goal was to "bomb them into the Stone Age."  Iran is not Vietnam.  Consider just the size:


Now consider Iran's leverage in the Gulf region.  The obvious first leverage was control of the Strait of Hormuz.  Trump has said "we don't care, we don't need oil from there, we have our own", which is true and quite irrelevant.  Here is the outflow from the Gulf:


Very little oil goes to the U.S.  But India is already hurting from gasoline shortages.  China less so because they have the world's largest strategic reserves of oil stored underground.  But the rest of Asia is suffering, and Europe is worried.  

The other things that come out of the Stait of Hormuz include the fertilizers that much of the world depends on for agriculture.  Trump's cavalier assessment that he doesn't care about Hormuz closing ignores U.S. farmers, who may be pushed to insolvency because of fertilizer costs.

Liquid helium comes out of the Gulf.  I think some MRI centers in the Americas and Europe have already indicated that they will decrease the availability of MRIs.  And I think liquid helium is also critical for some computer chip manufacturing.

Note that Iran has been attacking neighboring Gulf states, in part because those states have supported the U.S. with air bases, but also because they can do immense damage to the regional economies.  The next potential targets:  desalination plants.


Image cropped for size from the original in The Guardian.
Most Gulf countries only have water reserves to last about a week. Analysts have said that if any of these plants are struck and capacity taken out, the impact would be quick and severe and it could wipe out water to major cities in a matter of days.

Power plants need desalinated water for cooling, so electricity supply would be affected. It would particularly affect healthcare and the running of hospitals, and would likely have to cause industries and businesses to shut down for as long as there was a water shortage.

Water rationing would likely have to be introduced. There are concerns that this could lead to mass panic and civil unrest.
You want to talk about "bombing someone into the Stone Age"?  

Trump undoubtedly feels "the pressure of the midterms" because Republicans have been losing local elections all around the country, including Texas and yesterday in the district that includes his precious Mar-a-Lago. He will certainly be getting panicy calls from Gulf emirates who worry that their entire economies may be destroyed by a few well-placed ballistic missiles.  

Enough gloom and doom for right now.  More later on the potential for a world-wide recession, because despite Trump's assertion that things will quickly revert back to normal, it's more likely that "things" are going to continue to get worse...

Addendum Wednesday evening:


(Excerpted from Facebook, so no guarantee that it is true.)
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