Introducing a "from Facebook" category in TYWKIWDBI

I have deeply conflicting feelings about Facebook, which I joined last year.  One the one hand it allows me simple and frequent communication with friends, classmates, neighbors, relatives.  On the other hand it is loaded with utter crap, including extraordinarily realistic AI creations and misleading clickbait. Of course on the third hand it reassures me by feeding me more and more material I agree with because its algorithm is designed to do just that.

Intermixed with all that is a potential abundance of "ordinary" (nonpolitical, nonpersonal) postings from history groups, science and technology groups, scholarly institutions, and reputable news sources.  It's sometimes hard to tell which is which.

Take for example the screencap embedded above.  Interesting, certainly.  And makes sense.  If you are already fucking up the ecosystem of the abyssal plane of the world's oceans by harvesting manganese nodules, it makes sense to add the capability to do a little snip-snip on a rival's undersea cables.

I don't have time to chase down primary sources all the time.  I made a screencap of that item, but did not go to the South China Morning Post to confirm that the article exists.  

Going forward, anything I post in the "from Facebook" category should be viewed with suspicion.  And I'm not providing links because I don't want to support clickbait.  You can search for relevant info elsewhere.  

Assessing geopolitical turmoil

The embed is a screencap from Facebook, which I haven't tracked to the primary source, but I quite agree with the expressed sentiment.

I am disappointed (but not surprised) that major news outlets tend to report on what Trump is saying without adding any nuance or interpretation.  Perhaps that is their perceived role, or perhaps they are under pressure not to openly criticize this authoritarian president.

Personally, I have been monitoring Al Jazeera every night.  They have a You Tube channel that broadcasts live in English 24/7.  Whether you hear live news or recordings depends on your global time lag (mine is 9 hours).  The broadcasts originate from Qatar and include interviews with Middle Eastern and European leaders or their representatives.

What I hear just from brief visits to that site is quite different from what I hear on American sites.  This morning the equity, bond, and oil markets are reacting positively to reports that U.S. and Iranian representatives "are talking" and that "there are hopes for a settlement."

The underlying truth (I think) is that the Trump administration has issued a set of 15 guidelines (no nuclear weapons capability etc).  Trump is expecting "unconditional surrender" including control of Iranian oil production.  Iranian leaders have issued their "talking points" which include "sovereignty over their nation and the Gulf of Hormuz" and "reparations for damages done by the U.S. and Israel."

Does anyone actually think there is serious talking going on.  Nonsense.  Everyone knows that this apparent cease-fire is nothing more than an opportunity for both sides to reload.  The U.S. has elite ground forces en route to the conflict area:

For their part, the Iranians are at least talking locally about unceasing resistance:

Trump and Hegseth seem to feel they can bomb Iran into submission - a sentiment that scarily echoes what I remember from coming of age during the Vietnam war, when the goal was to "bomb them into the Stone Age."  Iran is not Vietnam.  Consider just the size:

Now consider Iran's leverage in the Gulf region.  The obvious first leverage was control of the Strait of Hormuz.  Trump has said "we don't care, we don't need oil from there, we have our own", which is true and quite irrelevant.  Here is the outflow from the Gulf:

Very little oil goes to the U.S.  But India is already hurting from gasoline shortages.  China less so because they have the world's largest strategic reserves of oil stored underground.  But the rest of Asia is suffering, and Europe is worried.  

The other things that come out of the Stait of Hormuz include the fertilizers that much of the world depends on for agriculture.  Trump's cavalier assessment that he doesn't care about Hormuz closing ignores U.S. farmers, who may be pushed to insolvency because of fertilizer costs.

Liquid helium comes out of the Gulf.  I think some MRI centers in the Americas and Europe have already indicated that they will decrease the availability of MRIs.  And I think liquid helium is also critical for some computer chip manufacturing.

Note that Iran has been attacking neighboring Gulf states, in part because those states have supported the U.S. with air bases, but also because they can do immense damage to the regional economies.  The next potential targets:  desalination plants.

Image cropped for size from the original in The Guardian.

Most Gulf countries only have water reserves to last about a week. Analysts have said that if any of these plants are struck and capacity taken out, the impact would be quick and severe and it could wipe out water to major cities in a matter of days.

Power plants need desalinated water for cooling, so electricity supply would be affected. It would particularly affect healthcare and the running of hospitals, and would likely have to cause industries and businesses to shut down for as long as there was a water shortage.

Water rationing would likely have to be introduced. There are concerns that this could lead to mass panic and civil unrest.

You want to talk about "bombing someone into the Stone Age"?  

Trump undoubtedly feels "the pressure of the midterms" because Republicans have been losing local elections all around the country, including Texas and yesterday in the district that includes his precious Mar-a-Lago. He will certainly be getting panicy calls from Gulf emirates who worry that their entire economies may be destroyed by a few well-placed ballistic missiles.  

Enough gloom and doom for right now.  More later on the potential for a world-wide recession, because despite Trump's assertion that things will quickly revert back to normal, it's more likely that "things" are going to continue to get worse...

Anomalous behavior in financial markets

I did not blog it at the time, but when Trump overthrew the government of Venezuela with his military action, an article in The Atlantic noted that some people profited very handsomely by correctly betting on that outcome via the prediction markets:

When U.S. Delta Force commandos slipped into Venezuelan airspace over the weekend, they did so in secrecy. And yet, in the hours before President Donald Trump gave the final order for the strike, someone bet more than $20,000 that Nicolás Maduro would be ousted as the country’s leader by the end of January.

On Polymarket, the online platform that lets people wager on almost anything, an anonymous trader somewhere in the world placed a series of suspiciously well-timed bets. Using a fresh account created last month, the individual made just a few bets in the days leading up to the raid, according to The Wall Street Journal—all on the possibility of imminent regime change in Venezuela—and appeared to come away with more than $400,000.

The Guardian made the same observation and interpretation:

The online wager platform Polymarket has angered some gamblers by declaring it will not settle millions of dollars’ worth of bets on a US invasion of Venezuela, arguing that the capture of the then president, Nicolás Maduro, does not qualify.

Before Donald Trump’s forces seized Maduro on Saturday morning, some traders appeared to have anticipated the shock move by placing bets on “prediction markets”.

These were not random "man on the street" bets.  Someone had inside knowledge and bet accordingly.  The publicly available data do not allow one to judge whether the people doing this are friends of Trump, or military commanders, or low-level communications staff.

Now it has happened again.  The embed at the top of this post is a cropped photo of my television, which was tuned in to Bloomberg at about the start of the trading day.  Donald Trump had announced (via Truth Social for crying out loud...) that he was going to scale back military action, which might lead to a easing of tensions and the reopening of the Gulf of Hormuz and (theoretically) lowering the price of oil.

The circled data point in the charts show that someone (??who??) traded options on the S&P 500 (proxy for the general market) and oil futures to the extent of more than a billion dollars IIRC.   The purple line in the bottom graph is either Brent or West Texas Intermediate, which immediately traded down when the market opened (and the equity indexes immediately traded up).

Someone knew this would happen.  Again, available data (at least public data) don't show whether it was a Trump friend.  But somebody is making big bucks from Trump's decisions.

Addendum:  Here are more details, from a BBC report -

...However, at 07:04 Eastern Time (11:04 GMT) on Monday, before US markets opened for the week, the president posted on his Truth Social platform that Washington had held "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" with Tehran over a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities.

Immediately, stocks bounced and the price of oil dipped to as low as $84 (£63) per barrel for the benchmark US price.

Observers have since scrutinised what happened in financial markets in the minutes leading up to the president's post.

At 06:49 ET, traders placed 734 bets on WTI crude oil contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). 

One minute later, that number had jumped to 2,168. That's equivalent to about $170m.

The same pattern can be seen in traders buying contracts for Brent crude, the other major oil benchmark. Between 06:48 and 06:50 ET, the volume of trades rose from 20 to more than 1,650. That's about $150m in contracts.

Data for previous Mondays shows that far fewer trades are normally made at that time of day. 

Similar trades also happened on Monday with futures contracts for the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, and other markets.

This means traders placed bets on the value of the largest firms listed in the US and Europe rising minutes before Trump's announcement.

Light pillars and sun pillars - updated x4

An Astronomy Picture of the Day from Finland, explained at the link and in my previous post on the subject.

Reposted from 2013 to add this awesome Astronomy Picture of the Day taken over Whitefish Bay:

"...vertical lines of light over a ground source that reflect from falling ice crystals. As the ground temperature was above freezing, the flat crystals likely melted as they approached the ground, creating a lower end to the vertical light pillars."

Reposted from 2018 to add this photo, via. 

And reposted yet again to add this remarkable image from the Astronomy Picture of the Day, which depicts a sun pillar.

"This was not a typical sun pillar. Just after sunrise two weeks ago in Providence, Rhode Island, USA, a photographer, looking out his window, was suddenly awestruck. The astonishment was caused by a sun pillar that fanned out at the top. Sun pillars, singular columns of light going up from the Sun, are themselves rare to see, and are known to be caused by sunlight reflecting from wobbling, hexagon-shaped ice-disks falling through Earth's atmosphere. Separately, upper tangent arcs are known to be caused by sunlight refracting through falling hexagon-shaped ice-tubes. Finding a sun pillar connected to an upper tangent arc is extraordinary, and, initially, took some analysis to figure out what was going on. A leading theory is that this sun pillar was also created, in a complex and unusual way, by falling ice tubes."

Might as well link to my previous posts on sun and light pillars in 2009 and 2010.

This schematic from Wikipedia -

- illustrates how the phenomenon is created.

Reposted from 2021 to add yet one more spectacular photo -

"Stool inspection shelf" illustrated

The discussion thread at the WeirdToilets subreddit includes extensive discussion as to whether a "stool inspection shelf" is a common feature of toilets in various European and worldwide locations.

Additional discussion at this archived article and in the "washout toilet" section of the Wikipedia page on flush toilets.

"Washout, or Flachspüler ("shallow flush"), toilets have a flat platform with a shallow pool of water. They are flushed by a jet of water from the back that drives waste into the trap below. From there, the water flow removes it into the sewage system. An advantage of the design is that users will not get splashed from below. Taking of stool samples is also simplified. Washout toilets have a shallow pool of water into which waste is deposited, with a trapped drain just behind this pool... Washout pans were among the first types of ceramic toilets invented and since the early 1970s are now only found in a decreasing number of localities in Europe.[citation needed] A washout toilet is a kind of flush toilet which was once predominantly used in Germany, Austria and France. It was patented in Britain by George Jennings in 1852 and remained the standard toilet type in Britain throughout the 19th century..."

Disappearing snowpack in the American west

Those of us who live in the Upper Midwest have been focusing on record amounts of snowfall.  Meanwhile, the opposite is happening in some western states, where they are currently experiencing record high temperatures.

Copypasting from Facebook is a lazy substitute for doing original research at sources, but I'm so pressed for time right now that this will have to do.  I believe these data are reliable.

A reminder of an old friendship

I've been busy this past week trying to trim down my ThingsToDo list, so I've not been blogging.  But there's always time to doomscroll, and while doing so yesterday I saw what looked like a clickbait link to People, which I don't normally visit or monitor.

The link turned out to be a brief but fairly decent summary of Beck Weathers' near-death experience on Mount Everest thirty years ago.  Beck was a classmate, neighbor, and friend during my years of postgraduate study in Dallas in the 1970s.  Two decades later his adventure -

"... Weathers at one point became temporarily blind from the ice splinters in the air, and opted to wait 400 feet below the summit until his vision cleared... Weathers collapsed and over the next 24 hours, eight other climbers died on the summit. When a Canadian climber found Weathers half-buried in fresh snow the next day, he assumed he was too late. "I thought Weathers was dead," Hutchinson said in an earlier interview, per PEOPLE. "I unburied him and broke the ice off his face.... Weathers ultimately lost his hands and nose to frostbite and underwent 10 reconstructive surgeries in the years that followed..."

- made headlines and was eventually incorporated into the novel and movie Into Thin Air.  Beck and I have fallen out of touch over the decades, but it's nice to see that the People article indicates that he is alive and doing well.

Interesting photograph

The underside of a brick bridge illluminated by light reflected off water, with perhaps something else casting a shadow - I haven't figured that part out.  No info re location at the Facebook source.

Reflections from a relatively tiny box

The middle of a continent is subject to weather extremes.   Here in Wisconsin we had robins, crocuses, and first butterflies last week, then a snowstorm dumping 10" snow overnight, now expecting 70-degree temps next weekend.  I'm looking forward to getting out of my own "tiny box" when all this gets sorted out.

Sparrowhawk on juvenile starling

I don't want to end the blogging day with a picture of you-know-who at the top of the page, so I'll add this absolutely awesome photo (click to embiggen) that was the winner in the "Animal Behavior" category of the British Wildlife Photography awards for 2026.  Credit Mark Parker, via The Atlantic, where there are other excellent photos.

When I saw this headline (and other versions of it on other news sites), I went ballistic.  I'm an old English major with an enormous vocabulary, but even with those credentials I don't think if I spent all day I could find enough words to express how deeply I despise this utter catastrophe of a president.   

Fortunately I have something saved up, copied from Facebook several weeks ago.  I didn't post it here because I do try to keep the conversation civil, but now the gloves are off.  And anyone who comments on this post expressing support for Trump will get a perma-ban. 

Heck, I might as well add this -

I always thought he was Netanyahu's bitch, but maybe Putin is more likely.

Trail marker trees

The stately oak tree above was featured in our local paper.  Known as the "Half-Way Tree," this bur oak marks the midpoint between Lake Michigan and the Mississippi River along paths used by Native Americans in the pre-settlement era.

Anyone interested in trail marker trees - especially those modified by Native Americans - should visit the comprehensive website of the Great Lakes Trail Marker Tree Society

Reposted from 2015 to add information that popped up on Facebook:

The mistake I've been carrying in my head for years was that the bent portion of a marker tree pointed which direction a trail went.  In retrospect it's apparent that such a direction should be unnecessary because if you're on the trail you know which direction it goes (unless its very old and overgrown).  On an active trail the bent portion of the tree would more logically point to local resources (water, shelter), as is obviously the case in this example.  

Kudos to the family that documented this example before it was lost forever.

Addendum:  Additional kudos to reader CHaggard, who found the current website for the Great Lakes Trail Marker Tree Society.  Lots of information and excellent photos of some remarkable trees, and info re a relevant book.

"The obedience of a novice" - Pavel Ryzhenko

I found this painting posted at Uncertain Times this morning.  It took a bit of searching, but I tracked down the title - "Obedience of a novice" - and the artist - Pavel Ryzhenko, a modern (b. 1970) Russian artist and professor at the Russian Arts Academy, who "specializes in historical and religious paintings."

I'm most curious about the activity portrayed.  I see a bent tree (which under other circumstances could be a "marker tree" designating a  trail, but not in the middle of an orchard) against which lies an axe.  Some limbs have been trimmed off - to what purpose?  It's not an effort to remove the tree, which could be easily accomplished more directly.  Young trees get bent if they are leaned on by falling deadwood or heavily laden with winter ice; it must have happened some years ago to have the branches emerging from the horizontal segment in a vertical orientation.   I get the sense that this tree has been fashioned like this for some practical purpose.

The trees in the ?cherry orchard are painted white to waist level, and the novice appears to be in the process of doing so.  Is it the application of a pest repellant?  Or does it have a religious significance?

The items on the ground in the orchard are presumably related to the ?Russia Orthodox religion.  Perhaps they help explain what's going on.

It's a most interesting painting that tells a story - but I can't decipher what the story is.

Addendum:  A hat tip to Ariston, who identified the objects in the background as beehives.  Here's an example from the Troitsky Monastery.

Reposted from 2010 to accompany a new post about marker trees.  When I wrote this 16 years ago, I assumed that the bent tree couldn't be a marker tree because it is in an orchard.  That's not strictly true.  There could have been a trail or road to the left of this scene, and the tree could be bent to indicate the presence of a spring/creek or a cave/shelter to the right of the scene.  For an example of such, see the adjacent new post.

A language curiosity

In the etymology subreddit, someone made note of the fact that in various languages, the word for "night" is the same as the word for "eight" with the letter "n" added.  This is true.  He/she offered a theoretical and totally incorrect hypothesis.  

I won't give the correct explanation here.  I'll let readers ponder the curiosity before seeking the correct explanation, which is buried down in the comment thread in the reply by BeansandDoritos.

Who benefits from the current gulf war?

Putin and Russia for sure.  Oil companies that don't export via the gulf.  Weapons manufacturers. Government insiders who can make investment decisions on classified information.  Financial firms that can leverage the new volatility.  You can add to the list.  You won't find "regular people" on there.

So I'll offer this quote today from General Smedley Butler:

“I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. 

I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. 

I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. 

I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street.

 I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912.

 I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. 

I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. 

In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. 

Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.”

I believe General Butler was the originator of the quote that "War is a racket."

Smedley Darlington Butler (July 30, 1881 – June 21, 1940) was an American major general in the United States Marine Corps. During his 34-year military career, he fought in the Philippine–American War, the Boxer Rebellion, the Mexican Revolution, World War I, and the Banana Wars. At the time of his death, Butler was the most decorated Marine in U.S. military history. By the end of his career, Butler had received sixteen medals, including five for heroism; he was awarded the Marine Corps Brevet Medal as well as two Medals of Honor, all for separate actions.

Addendum:   A friend sent me this article from the Financial Times:

US oil companies stand to receive a windfall of more than $60bn this year if crude prices maintain the levels they have hit since the start of the Iran war.

Modelling by investment bank Jefferies estimates American producers will generate an extra $5bn cash flow this month alone following a roughly 47 per cent rise in oil prices since the conflict began on February 28...

About 18mn of the 20mn barrels of oil that normally pass through the waterway each day remain blocked, according to research by Goldman Sachs. The shock is more dramatic for the LNG industry, with about a fifth of global production halted.

Details at the link.