"Things You Wouldn't Know If We Didn't Blog Intermittently."
03 December 2010
World population demographics
A brief, but very informative video from The Economist explaining why the world's population is approaching an asymptote at the top of its curve, and why total population may level off (at nine billion!!). "It will be a more crowded, but a more stable, world."
Makes sense. Modernization brought food and sanitation first, which results in a huge population boom. Later, improved medical care makes women more confident that their children will live to adulthood, and birth control gives them a means of choosing their family size.
I've heard (though I can't remember where) that some demographics, particularly in Europe, are already below the replacement rate and have been shrinking for the last decade or so. I expect we'll see more of that as time goes on. Overpopulation is not going to destroy the world just yet. (I'm also very curious to see how the Chinese one-child policy plays out. What do they really think they're accomplishing?)
I just read a piece over on Wikipedia that states that around 9,000 women were forcibly sterilized in the last couple of years by the Chinese for having violated their one-child policy.
I have also heard that it is quite possible that the world's population might begin to even fall before the end of the century due to birthrates falling below 2.1 children per woman.
Interesting data, but I can't figure out why they decided to plot it on a circular/radial graph. It gives no extra insight (since population growth is not cyclical) and compresses the visible y-axis range down to almost nothing.
Mark, I quite agree with you. It's just an x/y plot curved around to fit into a smaller space (?to allow a larger font?). I found it to be more a distraction than an aid.
This is pretty alarming. We better all start having eleven children again, or the population momentum is going to falter and the earth will be depopulated.
Makes sense. Modernization brought food and sanitation first, which results in a huge population boom. Later, improved medical care makes women more confident that their children will live to adulthood, and birth control gives them a means of choosing their family size.
ReplyDeleteI've heard (though I can't remember where) that some demographics, particularly in Europe, are already below the replacement rate and have been shrinking for the last decade or so. I expect we'll see more of that as time goes on. Overpopulation is not going to destroy the world just yet. (I'm also very curious to see how the Chinese one-child policy plays out. What do they really think they're accomplishing?)
I just read a piece over on Wikipedia that states that around 9,000 women were forcibly sterilized in the last couple of years by the Chinese for having violated their one-child policy.
ReplyDeleteI have also heard that it is quite possible that the world's population might begin to even fall before the end of the century due to birthrates falling below 2.1 children per woman.
DaBris
Interesting data, but I can't figure out why they decided to plot it on a circular/radial graph. It gives no extra insight (since population growth is not cyclical) and compresses the visible y-axis range down to almost nothing.
ReplyDeleteHopefully it will start to decrease after its pinnacle.
ReplyDeleteEven at six billion we are burning through our resource reserve at an astounding rate.
As for a guess I would say a good sustainable human population would be around one billion people... on earth.
Mark, I quite agree with you. It's just an x/y plot curved around to fit into a smaller space (?to allow a larger font?). I found it to be more a distraction than an aid.
ReplyDeleteThis is pretty alarming. We better all start having eleven children again, or the population momentum is going to falter and the earth will be depopulated.
ReplyDeleteI kinda liked the circular graph.