29 April 2026

"Demand destruction" looms

I don't know if this term will work its way from the business/economic community to the general press, but it is a useful term.  Here's the Wiki:
In economics, demand destruction refers to a permanent or sustained decline in the demand for a certain good in response to persistent high prices or limited supply. Because of persistent high prices, consumers may decide that it is not worth purchasing as much of that good, or seek out alternatives as substitutes.
I've heard that phrase expressed in interviews on the Bloomberg channel and on Al Jazeera, but today I encountered the phrase in a Facebook post by Mohamed El-Erian:


I will reiterate my previously-expressed belief that the U.S. equity markets are trading at unsustainably high levels based on irrational expectations of a quick resolution to the current Gulf conflict (based on part on Trump's totally irrational claims of such), combined with positive economic news from the small sector of AI-related companies that are overweighted in equity indexes.  The American consumer is hurting and is cutting back on spending; the fact that inflation is stable or rising indicates that companies are passing on their costs to consumers, not that consumers are buying more (as El-Erian notes).  IMHO this is a good time to cash in on paper gains in stocks or to write covered calls when such are available.

Addendum:  Here is a 6-month graph of an index representing the 500 largest companies in the U.S., with the onset of the war indicated by the red arrow:


The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a similar shape.  The S&P has overshot the war onset number because this is its composition:


The U.S. "economy" is increasingly being viewed as one based on information technology, and while artificial intelligence may hold enormous potential for increasing profitability of corporations through increaed efficiecy (and lower payrolls...), the underlying "boots on the ground" economy of agriculture and industry is suffering.  Even if the war ends tomorrow morning, oil prices are going to remain high for a prolonged period.

Just my opinion.  Do not make your investment decisions based on the rantings of an old English major with job skills in the biosciences.  Consult your investment advisors and read widely.

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