I have lots of chores to attend to today, but wanted to insert this info about trade. This morning the above photo was posted in the pics subreddit along with the observation that "The port is empty. Only one ship and no containers. Usually a busy port." Another Redditor checked marine traffic data and added "Checked it out myself on marine traffic, one cargo ship from Busan currently docked and one vehicle carrier from Hawaii."
I looked for confirmation elsewhere and found it in the business page of the Seattle Times:
Experts think it won’t be until May that the full impacts of a U.S.-China tariff tit-for-tat hit the ports of Seattle and Tacoma, given the weekslong transit times between the sparring nations. But port officials and port-dependent businesses are already feeling the early effects.They’re also bracing for what could be a substantial decline not only in import and export activity, but also in work for related players. That includes longshoremen who handle the cargo and truckers who haul goods into and out of the ports...Starting last summer, many U.S. companies began importing extra inventory or shipping extra products overseas out of concern that then-candidate Trump would win reelection and make good on his campaign promises of high tariffs.That forward buying continued in the first three months of this year. In January, February and March, the ports of Tacoma and Seattle handled nearly 666,000 inbound and outbound containers, a 24% jump from the same period in 2024, port data shows.While it’s unclear how much of that extra volume was tied to forward buying, “a significant portion of that is likely due to folks advancing orders with concerns about potential tariffs,” said Steve Balaski, director of business development at the Northwest Seaport Alliance.Now, however, the period of forward buying appears to be giving way to a period of slow or even no buying...
Trump's earlier claims that the tariffs were bringing in millions of dollars reflected that "advanced ordering" (just as recent commercial store sales are stabilized by consumers stocking up). The reality is starting to hit, and it's going to hit hard.
Our family is stocking up on certain items. FYI, here's a longread from a toilet paper company re the potential effects of tariffs on that historically newsworthy product.
Addendum: An anonymous reader found this comment at the Reddit source link: '"That looks like Terminal 30, which paused operations at the beginning of the year until further notice due to waste water quality regulations. This was an operational pause planned as long ago as August 2024. Additional traffic is being rerouted to other terminals and to Tacoma." I have therefore modified the title of the post and some of the language in my commentary to indicate that the situation at the port appears to be serious, but not cataclysmic.
Addendum: This link shows current traffic in the port.
Addendum: An anonymous reader provided the link for this very thorough and informative video:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-174.9/centery:42.5/zoom:4
ReplyDeleteThis is always fun too. I don't know how the current density of traffic compares with be fore April 4.
Did you read the comments in the 'pic' link on Reddit?
ReplyDeleteFrom one of the comments: "That looks like Terminal 30, which paused operations at the beginning of the year until further notice due to waste water quality regulations. This was an operational pause planned as long ago as August 2024. Additional traffic is being rerouted to other terminals and to Tacoma."
Thank you, anon. I've amended the post accordingly.
Deletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-plunge-in-shipping-traffic-from-china-tells-us-about-tariffs-stocks-and-the-economy-e46bf135?mod=home_lead
ReplyDeleteThank you, Crowboy - especially for that graph showing arrivals by air vs those by sea, which screams "front-loading"
DeleteDe nada. The Baltic Dry Index is kind of interesting. It's tracking at about average, but it's a global metric: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index
Deletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-trade-deficit-in-goods-soars-to-record-high-as-businesses-aimed-to-beat-tariff-price-hikes-66a88512?mod=MW_article_top_stories
Deletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/trade-deficit-hit-record-in-march-on-stockpiling-of-goods-ahead-of-tariffs-8002aa81?mod=home_ln
DeleteAnd with no malice, Port of Seattle is a smallish port on the West Coast. The port of Los Angeles/ Long Beach handles more than 5x the traffic through Port of Seattle. And as a point of comparison, Port of Long Beach for March 2025 handed 25% more incoming traffice than March of last year. (Just a quick comparison.. from https://polb.com/business/port-statistics/#latest-statistics) Port of Los Angeles is about 2% higher in March, compared to 2024. (https://www.portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics)
ReplyDeleteSo we're not seeing a decrease in port traffic coming in yet -- but May and June may see big drops. So far, we can't point to numbers to say "yes! its happening!" yet....
I bet there's a way to look up "scheduled arrivals" for container-ship-size arrivals, because their parking places need to be reserved ?weeks ahead of time.
DeleteSort of.. about a week ahead. I've worked with the ports in Alamitos Bay (LA and Long Beach). The port is actually 45 different terminals split between about a dozen different operators. And there are different terminals between (for example) dry bulk cargo, wet bulk cargo, containers, passenger vessels, automotive/ vehicle carriers, etc. So if a terminal isnt available, you can't shift a ship and cargo to the next open one. Juggling cargos and ships at a terminals is pretty dynamic. You have to arrange for the cranes and operators and ground crews, and also have the truckers ready to drop off or accept the cargos at a specific terminal. And then you get issues like broken down terminal cranes, lack of dock space to offload and on-load cargos for an individual vessel, problems getting the trucks & trailers in and out, specific work crews, paperwork (customs, regulatory, financial, etc) and other stuff. A ship is in port around 4 days on average, getting its cargo unloaded and a new cargo on. It takes about 12-18 days for a ship to get from China to Alamitos Bay.
DeleteSo they can forecast pretty well about a week ahead -- saying "XX Ship will be docking at Terminal YY on dd/mm/yr" with accuracy of a few hours. And about 2-3 weeks ahead since they know ships A, B, C, D, E are enroute with an expected arrival time on about a day. But a quarter ahead? pretty uncertain...
I used vesselfinder.com to track my cargo container of furniture from Boston to Spain.
ReplyDeleteKilling US softly with his wrongs...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33kfpNiiAmo
ReplyDeleteThank you, anon!! Tons of objective data, with some interpretation but no apparent bias.
DeleteThanks - picked up two good ship tracking web sites.
ReplyDelete