Data from this study show (or shows) a striking decline in teen pregnancies and abortions in the United States. This information flies in the face of public misperceptions of teen sexuality:
Perhaps it seems like things are getting worse because there’s always a new trend that inspires moral panic about teens’ risky sexual behavior — like sexting, “raunchy” pop songs, the college “hook up culture,” and TV shows’ supposed “glamorization” of teen pregnancy. Social conservatives also often raise concerns about the fact that Americans are increasingly having sex and children outside of marriage, equating changing family structures with bad choices.The geographic trend is also interesting...
I'll defer any commentary on that distribution.
Via The Dish.
I have insufficient interest or time to analyze the actual data. So instead, let me opine on what I perceive as the relationship between the pregnancy curve and the abortion curve, post 1990. It appears to me that the birthrate line is declining at a faster rate than the abortion line, thus leading me to the conclusion that the percentage of teen pregnancies ending in abortion was increasing during this period of time. Have I got it wrong?
ReplyDeleteI don't see any significant difference in the slopes of the two lines you refer to, but I don't see any need to cross-correlate the curves to find "the percentage of teen pregnancies ending in abortion." That would be the "abortion rate" blue line, which has fallen from about 40/1000 (4%) to about 20/1000 (2%) during the time period you specify. There would be lots more data and discussion at the link, but I also don't have time to dig more deeply.
DeleteAnon: Yes, it looks like you have it incorrect.
DeleteAt the peak, about 1990 or shortly thereafter, pregnancy rates were about 120 per thousand women in the 15-19 age group. In 2010, it looks like that rate had fallen to about 60 per thousand, a decrease of about 50% (my numbers are inaccurate, I am sure, because I am only reading a small chart, not delving into the report behind the chart). Similarly, abortions fell from about 40 per thousand women in that age group to about 20 per thousand - also a 50% drop.
It looks to me like the rates of decrease are tracking pretty closely. If the two lines did have the same slope, that would indicate that the change in their absolute numbers were equal. As it is, the chart indicates to me that abortions remain fairly flat per thousand pregnant women in that age group.
"Too cold for sex."
ReplyDelete????
DeleteTeen pregancy rates are lower than tbhey were in 1990 and 1957. Maybe sex-ed works. In an environement where a wider range of sexual practices that don't result in pregnancy are more acceptable there's probably going to be less pregnancy. It might be possible we can thank Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinski.
ReplyDeleteSeems like a very strong correlation with minority teen populations.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/01/07/us/07south-graphic.html
I'm very glad that teen pregnancy rates are falling dramatically among every ethnicity.
http://www.hhs.gov/ash/oah/adolescent-health-topics/reproductive-health/teen-pregnancy/trends.html
I remember reading -- I think in Freakonomics-- that the rise in the rate of teen abortions in Canada led to a fall in crime, with a delay of about 15 years (the time for the potentially unwanted children to grow up). I decided to see if there was a similar effect on the crime rate in the USA. I didn't find that, but it seemed that violent crime rate graphs (like this one) looked quite similar to the pregnancy rate graph shown here. They seem to go up and down together, with no time delay.
ReplyDeleteTo check this I pulled the crime rate data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics website (the source for the graph above) and the pregnancy rates for women under 20 from the study, for the period 1973-2010, and calculated a correlation coefficient of 0.68.
I don't have a commentary on that, I don't know what to make of it. I just thought it might be interesting.
The problem (as I'm sure you are aware) is this -
Deletehttp://www.neatorama.com/2014/05/10/Spurious-Correlations/
I read freakanomics and I tbhink they made a good argument for the abortion rate (of the past) impacting crime rates yeas later. It wasn't. The only cause but I think it goes beyond a spurious. Correlation as areas with earlier access to abortion also had earlier reductions in crime.
DeleteLess likely criminals born would seem a likely reason for less criminals.
Yes, coincidence is probably a safe bet. I just thought that maybe there were some societal causes that drove both of those variables together. The humps and bumps seem spookily well-coordinated. But then again, so do they between suicide by suffocation and spending on science. Thanks for the link by the way, had some good laughs out of it :-)
Delete@JDJarvis
DeleteI thought the argument made sense too, which is why I wanted to see if I could replicate that result with these data. I'm disappointed to see that it's not readily apparent. I only spent half an hour on that analysis though, so I'm not saying it's wrong either.
"I'll defer any commentary on that distribution"
ReplyDeleteWhy?
I'll state the obvious. In addition to alternate versions of sex, birth control is more widely available, which not only reduces teen births, but abortions.
ReplyDeleteSex education isn't allowed in those states with the highest rates of teen pregnancy.
ReplyDeleteyou should really compare that against the maps here and see what the future brings...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/08/sex-education-requirement-maps_n_5111835.html