When the endgame is defeat - updated

Excerpts from an article in The Atlantic last week:

... Trump’s repeated threats to resume attacks since then have proved to be bluffs. The leaders in Tehran have been calculating for two months that Trump would not launch another attack, and for this reason they have made no concessions despite the damage they suffered from 37 days of relentless strikes. On the contrary, their terms for a settlement are those of a victor: They demand war reparations, no limits on uranium enrichment, recognized control of the strait, and an end to sanctions...

In 30 days, moreover, the new Iranian strait regime may already be firmly in place. As the Institute for the Study of War reports, Iran has been using the cease-fire period to “normalize” its control over the strait by “compelling oil-importing countries” to establish transit agreements with Tehran and charging fees on vessels from nations without such deals. According to Iranian officials, the new strait regime will give Iran’s strategic partners, such as Russia and China, priority and allow nations friendly to Iran, such as India and Pakistan, to negotiate their own transit agreements. Vessels associated with nations that Iran regards as an adversary will be denied access to the strait entirely...

Several nations, including South Korea, Turkey, and Iraq, are reportedly already negotiating at least temporary transit agreements.. Those nations currently allied with the United States and friendly to Israel will feel pressure to distance themselves and make their peace with Iran. The international sanctions against Iran will collapse, and even more money will pour into the country’s accounts as its newly central role in the global economy becomes normalized. By the end of 30 days, most of the world will have a stake in the new arrangement and will oppose any resumption of hostilities, even in the unlikely event that Trump wanted to go back to war.

Trump no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat. The financial markets may stabilize if it is clear that oil will eventually start flowing again through a reopened strait, even if under the new Iran-controlled system. A major strategic setback for the United States need not affect Wall Street. The president may also hope that he can change the subject by launching another military operation, this time against the government in Cuba. And the news media have indeed begun writing more about Cuba than about the unfolding disaster in Iran.

Will Israel go gentle into this good night? That is the wild card that may disrupt the financial markets’ dreams of a new stability in the Gulf. A stronger, richer, more influential Iran will mean new life for Hamas and Hezbollah. It will mean the end of the Abraham Accords, as the Gulf States will have to make their own peace with Tehran so that their economies can survive. Trump says that Netanyahu “will do whatever I want him to do.” But can Israel stand by while Iran replaces the United States as the arbiter of power in the region?

Netanyahu is clearly the wild card, in every sense of the word, because the current memorandum of understanding that I have seen indicates that one of the conditions for opening the Strait is that Israel cease its attacks on Lebanon.

Addendum:  This morning I saw Trump's latest pronoucement re the "deal" he's offering...

Strait opened with no tolls plus magical "destruction" of "Nuclear Dust" by methods that have not yet been invented.  So, let me plug that reply into the Magic 8 Ball and ask what Iran's reply will be...

Well, the Magic 8 Ball skipped its 20 standard answers and instead replied "no fucking way, Jose."

So, what's the next step?  Hostilities resumed (the U.S. has been bombing Iranian missile sites during the cease-fire), or kicking the can down the road ("resume negotiations")???  If someone could check Trump's management of his investments before the market closes this afternoon, that might give the answer...