My view of the legacy of George W. Bush

Every political and news website and most serious blogs have had entries this week evaluating the departure of George W. Bush and the expectations regarding Barack Obama. I don't expect to add anything substantive to the cacophony of clashing voices, but I can't resist offering some personal opinion.

When George W. Bush was elected in 2000, I had for the previous eight years been displeased with and offended by the presidency of Bill Clinton. With a centrist personal philosophy I considered Gore to be too far to the left and Bush to be too far to the right, so as the 2000 election drama evolved I remember deciding that probably GWB was the lesser of two evils. During his subsequent terms of office he did little to improve my perception of him.

I'm a social liberal and a fiscal conservative; while wearing the latter hat I have been repeatedly disappointed with the Bush administration. I don't know how much of the economic disaster has been his fault versus that of his appointees (or the Congress), but the fact is that under his guidance, and with his approval, taxes were cut and spending was increased. The entitlement programs of Social Security and Medicare are disastrously underfunded; these problems have been blatantly ignored and "passed on" to the next administration or to the next generation.

American military power and our reputation on the world stage have been severely compromised; we are no longer feared by enemies or respected to the same degree by allies. While our military is impaired by declining enlistment standards and unsustainable redeployments, the Chinese and Russian forces have gained in relative terms. Our failure to achieve closure in Iraq against opposition weaker by an order of magnitude has probably emboldened other opposition, including that in Afghanistan where even the viability of a continuing presence of our troops is open to question.

It is deeply ironic that it is the failures of the Bush administration that I am most thankful for. The weakening of our military forces and the near-total collapse of our economy means that no matter what the Obama administration wants to do, neither it nor probably the one to follow it will have either the military or economic wherewithal to extend the American empire. I don't believe our Founding Fathers ever envisioned or desired an extension of "America" beyond the limits of our continent. It is a sign of modern political hubris that several administrations (dating back to well before the Bush era) have thought it our country's "duty" to impose democracy and capitalism around the world. If such institutions are to take hold in the third world, they will do so by their own virtues, not by the machinations of our political, corporate, or military leaders. Thanks to the Bush administration, this country now faces probably a decade of pulling back from the world stage and trying to repair our own country. I think that's the better course of events, and in a way I "thank" President Bush for bringing us to this situation.

And finally I would like to thank Mr. Bush for profoundly weakening the Republican party during his final term. As the graph at left shows, the President's approval rating has declined inexorably since September of 2001 - to lows never seen before by a departing president.

I'm not naive enough to think that the Democratic party is that different from the Republicans. In my view Nancy Pelosi, Rahm Emanuel et al are the "Democratic wing of the Republican party." I personally favor small government, but I know that whichever party is in power will always try to enlarge the role and power of government itself, so I don't think the reversal to a Democratic congress and Democratic president will in and of itself cure the problems inherent in a large and intrusive govenment.

But consider this. Supppose Mr. Bush had been able to hold his approval rating at just 40-50%. What if during the past presidential campaign he had not had to stay in hiding? What if the Republican candidates could have invoked the Bush name, the Bush legacy to garner voter support? With even just a 40% approval rating, Bush might have been able to swing enough voters in several key states to give the presidency to John McCain - and... the Vice-presidency to... Sarah Palin.

I cannot conceive of a worse outcome or a scarier scenario for today than to have watched McCain and Palin being sworn in and expected to deal with a crashing economy. Whatever faults Obama and the Democrats have (and I hope to point them out frequently in the months to come), we have at least been spared a much worse nightmare.

So, thank you Mr. Bush. Thank you for necessitating a pullback of our empire-building and thank you for making the election of Barack Obama possible. And frankly, despite all the shoes being rhetorically flung in your direction, I'll bet you're the happiest man in America tonight. Despite your protestations and brave words, I think you must have been profoundly unhappy this past year and desperately, joyously happy tonight to be relieved of those responsibilities and back in your beloved Texas.