24 July 2016
Monitoring the upcoming election via electoral votes
Personally, I'm sick and tired of American politics. Sick and tired of the way it is conducted, and sick and tired of reading about it.
But it is unquestionably important, and the outcome of the November elections will impact everyone's lives for the next 4+ years. Michael Moore has recently opined publicly his "five reasons why Trump will win," and national polls show the race to be neck-and-neck.
National polls, however, don't decide the presidency, because the convoluted electoral system takes precedence (as Bush-Gore clearly showed). The site I use to monitor trends in the electoral map is at Real Clear Politics (current map embedded above).
That link uses all available polls to indicate which states are "solid" (a subset of "likely" in the table above the map), "likely," "leaning," or a "toss-up." It obviously is not predictive of the future, but it seems to be a reasonable reflection of best-available current data. I don't know how often it is updated (hopefully every time a new poll result is added in the table under the map at the source).
There are undoubtedly other similar resources. Please offer any suggestions in the Comments.
Addendum: An anonymous reader correctly pointed out that I failed to mention Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website. Here's the most recent electoral map from there:
538: "We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8."
Addendum: Here's one more important map to monitor:
Updated versions are online at RealClearPolitics.
Addendum #2: And finally (?TMI), the New York Times offers The Upshot, a frequently-updating page that looks at the Presidential race from a wide range of aspects.