20 August 2024

Sometimes you get lucky


I enjoy video poker games and I believe I know the odds and proper choices well enough to be able to sit at a machine and lose money at the slowest possible rate.  A couple weeks ago I stopped in at a casino to see how long I could make $20 last, and after about a half hour I was startled to be dealt the hand in the embedded photo above.  I was stumped - didn't know what the best choice was, so I took a photo so I could look up the answer after I got home.

This game isn't basic jacks-or-better.  This is Double Double Bonus poker, with the enhanced odds for four-of-a-kind (posted at the top of the screen), compensated for by even odds for two pair, and somewhat lower payouts for other common wins.

I was dealt the flush, paying 5:1 odds.  Keep it and move on?  Or try for the straight flush, paying 50:1.  If I drop the King, I have two chances (7 or Queen) for the straight flush (out of 47 possible cards), plus 6 chances (out of 47) to retain a simple flush.  I dropped the King...


... and filled.  My choice was probably not the mathematically optimal choice [rough estimate the 47 possibilities would pay a total of 260 quarters = about 6 quarters per try versus keeping 10 quarters by standing pat].  I do think my willingness to go for it was based largely on the modest size of my bet (50c), and because I believe that happy memories are retained much longer than disappointments.

6 comments:

  1. Just curious, because I don't know the rules. If you had dropped the 8 would you have a royal straight flush or do you need the ace for that? No matter ya done good.
    xoxoxoBruce

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. royal flush has to be 10-J-Q-K-A of the same suit.

      Delete
  2. Many great traders believe that money management is a key component of trading stocks. Maybe you ought to try that, If you haven't already. When you mentioned "the modest size of my bet," that is precisely that sort of money management I've heard mentioned by great traders. They think in terms of position size, risk, position size, etc.

    ReplyDelete
  3. "I believe that happy memories are retained much longer than disappointments" This is exactly why Casinos can continue to operate.

    ReplyDelete
  4. As long as you are not spending my inheritance, have fun! :-)

    ReplyDelete