As reported in the Washington Post:
Ukraine, to use a technical term, is broke. That's what you call a country whose currency has lost half its value in just two days.TYWKIWDBI gets about 150 visits/month from readers in Ukraine. I would love to hear your thoughts in the comment thread for this post.
The problem is simple: Ukraine has no money and barely any economy... The hyrvnia fell from 16.8 to 24.4 per dollar, and then again to 25.3 on Friday, on this news that the government wouldn't intervene it in anymore. In all, it was a 50 percent decline in 48 hours...
Why is Ukraine so doomed? Well, it's been mismanaged on a world-historical scale by oligarchs who, for decades, have skimmed billions off the country's nonexistent growth. That last part's not hyperbole. It seems almost impossible, but Ukraine's economy has actually shrunk since communism ended in 1991. Or since 1992. Or even 1993. And now its not-so-cold war with Russia is destroying the little that's left. It's not just that the rebel strongholds in the factory-heavy east have deprived Ukraine of a quarter of its industrial capacity. It's that it can't afford to fight against what's still it's biggest trading partner—Russia. Think about that. You don't usually trade a lot with the country you're going to battle against, but Ukraine's economy is so dependent on Russia's that it still trades more with it than any other. That means anything that hurts Russia, like lower oil prices or sanctions, just redounds onto Ukraine, and puts it in an even bigger financial hole.
After watching the debates on German TV, I believe that there are still too many politicians including the President of the EU parliament who act as if losing more parts of the Ukraine to the Russian separatists is an unacceptable breach of state sovereignty.
ReplyDeleteHowever maintaining this hypocrisy and saving face of the EU, is the cause for more and daily increasing suffering for the people in the east as well as all of Ukraine and Russia. Let's not forget that Russia lost almost all influence over most of the 15 former republics that comprised the CCCP, so this whole thing is not an invasion of a foreign state by nefarious means, but a legitimate attempt to maintain influence over it's own people and a close allied government that was violently deposed.
The Ukraine backed by the EU should be drawing new borders and haggle over new gas prices, instead they set themselves up for slaughter and generations of aftermath for a radicalized, nationalized, militarized and mobilized nation.
I remember a friend telling me about 12 Years ago pretty much every male in the Ukraine wore some kind of a camo even if it was just pants of jacket, I'm sure it was more than just a fashion but more of a protective signal "Don't mess with this soldier boy!"
"Let's not forget that Russia lost almost all influence over most of the 15 former republics that comprised the CCCP, so this whole thing is not an invasion of a foreign state by nefarious means, but a legitimate attempt to maintain influence over it's own people and a close allied government that was violently deposed."
DeleteIn other words - only empires have the right to statehood. A view that most of the world has abandoned since the 19th century - except for Russia.
Let's not forget that many of those republics originally entered the USSR (and the Russian Empire before that) though illegitimate conquest. Even in Soviet times, Russian nationalism meant that ethnic minorities - that is, most people in the peripheral republics - suffered disproportionately from various repressions, up to and including genocide. Let's also not forget that much of the Russian-speaking population in post-Soviet countries ended up there because of a deliberate colonization policy. Now that they are independent countries, they have every right to determine their own future without having to consult history books to find out what's "right" for them, or, worse, being coerced through military power.
What would you think if Britain invaded, say, South Africa in order to "protect" English speakers there? After all, Britain lost influence over "its own people" when the British Empire collapsed. It would be legitimate, right?
You may be right that, at this point, cutting Donetsk and Luhansk loose to be annexed by Russia is probably the best solution for the people involved in this particular conflict. Something better may have been possible last year, but not any more. However, the big problem with this is that it legitimizes 19th century rules for use in the 21st. It ensures that Putin will keep going - the same tactics will be repeated in Belarus, Moldova, the Baltics, Central Asia, and who knows where else. So really it's not just about Ukraine - the question here is whether imperialism can still be tolerated.
I believe that there are still too many politicians including the President of the EU parliament who act as if losing more parts of the Ukraine to the Russian separatists is an unacceptable breach of state sovereignty.
ReplyDeleteJust to translate this to America: Imagine Texas or New Mexico being taken back by Mexico. Oh wait, that happened? How did that turn out? Now imagine that it would happen in current times, and that the rest of the world - that explicitly told you it would back you when you gave up your nuclear weapons - said: Ah well, New Mexico and Texas have a lot of latinos anyway. Don't worry, America, we've got your back.
That's what's going on in Ukraine. The US, Russia and Europe promised to protect its sovereignty when it gave up its nukes. Now imagine, you're Iran and about to give up yours. Would you trust the US, Russia and Europe?
[I am not in Ukraine and have never been there]
A lot of Americans wouldn't mind if Texas went back to Mexico...
DeleteAs far as comparisons of old and modern Imperialism go...
DeleteEastern Ukraine is like the 13 Colonies seceding from Great Britain. And the French and Brits fighting over who gets to trade with them. Poroshenko being King George, and Putin being Marie Antoinette. Canada is western Ukraine and to remain / become a British colony.