23 August 2009

Should the U.S. lead an embargo on gas sales to Iran?

Interesting article at Asia Times this morning discussing the possibility of the U.S. calling for or leading an embargo on the sale or shipment of refined gasoline to Iran (as an inducement to Iran to stop its uranium enrichment program). Iran has huge oil reserves and substantial oil production, but very little refining capacity, and thus relies on importation of gasoline.
Many in Washington view Iran's vulnerability as an opportunity to coerce the country into abandoning its nuclear-arms program...

President Obama himself touted the appeal of such a move in the final presidential debate, on October 15, 2008. "If we can prevent them from importing the gasoline that they need, and the refined petroleum products, that starts changing their cost-benefit analysis," he declared. "That starts putting the squeeze on them."…

Having options short of war is, therefore, something to be greatly desired. But one must ask: would a ban on gasoline sales prove a step toward peace, or a step toward war? That is, would it make armed conflict less likely by forcing the Iranians to return to the bargaining table in a more accommodating mood, or would it prove a stepping-stone to military action?..

To be effective, a gas ban would require the acquiescence of Russia, China, India and other key powers that are reluctant to impose harsh sanctions on Iran. These countries conduct extensive trade with Iran and are not likely to jeopardize their well-established position there by complying with a US-backed measure…

On the other hand, a gasoline embargo might provoke the Iranians into taking steps that would increase the risk of war, especially if the United States employed military means to enforce the ban
For comparison, one might look back a couple generations:
In 1940... the United States halted shipments of airplanes, parts, machine tools, and aviation gasoline, which was perceived by Japan as an unfriendly act. The U.S. did not stop oil exports to Japan at that time in part because prevailing sentiment in Washington was that such an action would be an extreme step, given Japanese dependence on U.S. oil...

Following Japanese expansion into French Indochina after the fall of France, the U.S. ceased oil exports to Japan in the Summer of 1941, in part because of new American restrictions on domestic oil consumption...

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